Following peak growth of 7.2 percent last year on robust exports and investment, East Asia's economies excluding Japan are expected to ease their expansion to about 6 percent this year -- a rate that could still trim the region's number of poor by about 35 million, the World Bank said yesterday.
The December tsunami tragedy, which killed up to 184,378 people and left more than 50,000 missing, was not expected to have a significant impact on growth in the two most seriously affected economies, Indonesia and Thailand, the bank said in a biannual report.
"The most likely scenario is still one where the regional economy moves from cyclical recovery into a phase of more moderate but sustained expansion," the bank said, noting the impact of high oil prices and China's efforts to cool its rapid growth.
In China, where the economy expanded 9.5 percent last year, government efforts to avert overheating have had mixed results. Growth has remained robust, but is expected to slow down to just over 8 percent this year and 7.5 percent next year, the bank said.
China has two-thirds of Asia's poor, but their numbers are estimated to have fallen by 46 million to 416 million -- or from 36 percent in 2003 to 32 percent last year, the bank said.
"What is clear is that this kind of sustainable growth has the potential to bring poverty rates in developing East Asia down by as much as 5 or 6 percent, amounting to about 35 million people a year," said Jemal-ud-din Kassum, regional vice president for East Asia and the Pacific.
The World Bank said foreign exchange reserves held by East Asian economies excluding Japan reached an unprecedented US$1.46 trillion at the end of last year.
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