When Philip Gardner took a research position at Michigan State University in 1985, big corporations were snapping up graduates.
As the US economy rebounded from a recession, he recalled, Midland, Michigan-based Dow Chemical Co was hiring more than 100 graduates a year, while automakers hired even more.
Two recessions later, the economy is rebounding again, but the university's once-vast job pipeline is gone.
"Even though earnings are up for a company like Dow Chemical, they're just not hiring that many people any more," said Gardner, who directs the Collegiate Employment Research Institute.
Anecdotal evidence like this doesn't just worry the jobless, their families and friends. The lagging job market could become a key tripwire for US President George W. Bush in this year's election. An economic recovery without jobs may not sit well with voters, who could side with Democrats suggesting that Bush has favored big business at the expense of workers.
And without a pickup in employment, consumer confidence and spending on Main Street may take a hit.
Indeed, even companies with quarterly profits soaring are shy about adding workers -- if they're not laying people off.
"We listened to over a hundred quarterly earnings conference calls and we have not heard from anybody who says they are picking up the pace of hiring," said Richard Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research. "Not one."
US companies continue to look to India and China for cheaper labor, adding to the worries of some that new jobs are headed to Guangzhou and Bangalore rather than Chicago or Boston.
Confirming these fears, factory closures and mass firings made headlines this earnings season.
Last week, Eastman Kodak Co said it would cut 15,000 jobs as it redefines itself to keep pace with the market for digital products. Kraft Foods Inc said it would cut 6,000 jobs and close 20 plants as it reported lower fourth-quarter earnings.
Such cuts are inevitable as products go out of fashion or companies run into trouble. But even companies with soaring profits are reducing work forces.
Both Dow Chemical and rival DuPont Co reported higher-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and gave optimistic forecasts for this year -- but still announced plans to cut more jobs.
And in a trend consistent across the banking industry, Wells Fargo & Co last month reported strong fourth-quarter profit, but said it cut 7,500 of its 10,000 temporary mortgage positions since September. More layoffs are on the way, the company said.
Meanwhile, only 1,000 new jobs were created in December, the Labor Department said. Last week, initial claims for state jobless benefits fell by 1,000, to 342,000, from the previous week.
John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Investor Service, predicted job growth could start as early as March, based on the rapid increase nationwide productivity.
Henry Willmore, head of US economics at Barclays Capital, agreed.
"We've already started to see this happen," Willmore said, as the financial-services industry has started adding jobs for the first time in years.
Expect more job postings this quarter, he added, but not the glut of hiring seen in the mid-1980s.
Willmore attributed the hot job market in that period to the US economy's sudden growth -- unlike today's sluggish pace.
But Gardner, of Michigan State, remains skeptical of an imminent job comeback.
"Economists keep saying that these companies should be hiring," he said. "But they're not."
Super Typhoon Kong-rey is the largest cyclone to impact Taiwan in 27 years, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said today. Kong-rey’s radius of maximum wind (RMW) — the distance between the center of a cyclone and its band of strongest winds — has expanded to 320km, CWA forecaster Chang Chun-yao (張竣堯) said. The last time a typhoon of comparable strength with an RMW larger than 300km made landfall in Taiwan was Typhoon Herb in 1996, he said. Herb made landfall between Keelung and Suao (蘇澳) in Yilan County with an RMW of 350km, Chang said. The weather station in Alishan (阿里山) recorded 1.09m of
STORM’S PATH: Kong-Rey could be the first typhoon to make landfall in Taiwan in November since Gilda in 1967. Taitung-Green Island ferry services have been halted Tropical Storm Kong-rey is forecast to strengthen into a typhoon early today and could make landfall in Taitung County between late Thursday and early Friday, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. As of 2pm yesterday, Kong-Rey was 1,030km east-southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), the nation’s southernmost point, and was moving west at 7kph. The tropical storm was packing maximum sustained winds of 101kph, with gusts of up to 126 kph, CWA data showed. After landing in Taitung, the eye of the storm is forecast to move into the Taiwan Strait through central Taiwan on Friday morning, the agency said. With the storm moving
NO WORK, CLASS: President William Lai urged people in the eastern, southern and northern parts of the country to be on alert, with Typhoon Kong-rey approaching Typhoon Kong-rey is expected to make landfall on Taiwan’s east coast today, with work and classes canceled nationwide. Packing gusts of nearly 300kph, the storm yesterday intensified into a typhoon and was expected to gain even more strength before hitting Taitung County, the US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center said. The storm is forecast to cross Taiwan’s south, enter the Taiwan Strait and head toward China, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. The CWA labeled the storm a “strong typhoon,” the most powerful on its scale. Up to 1.2m of rainfall was expected in mountainous areas of eastern Taiwan and destructive winds are likely
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) yesterday at 5:30pm issued a sea warning for Typhoon Kong-rey as the storm drew closer to the east coast. As of 8pm yesterday, the storm was 670km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻) and traveling northwest at 12kph to 16kph. It was packing maximum sustained winds of 162kph and gusts of up to 198kph, the CWA said. A land warning might be issued this morning for the storm, which is expected to have the strongest impact on Taiwan from tonight to early Friday morning, the agency said. Orchid Island (Lanyu, 蘭嶼) and Green Island (綠島) canceled classes and work