Leading shipping companies said on Thursday they expected their tankers to keep moving oil out of the Gulf in the event of a US-led attack on Iraq.
Ola Lorentzon, managing director of the world's largest oil tanker firm, Norway's Frontline, said it would be business as usual.
Other than the inevitable stoppage of supplies from Iraq, he said: "The consensus in the indus-try is that Iraq just does not have the striking power to hurt other producers."
The Gulf provides the global economy with a whopping 40 percent, 16 million barrels per day, of world crude exports, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency.
Oil dealers across trading exchanges in London, New York and Singapore will be watching nervously for any major snag in the supply chain, which would send already inflated prices rocketing.
Seaborne transport of crude oil is potentially an Achilles' heel, but so far the big tanker operators are confident there will be few dramas.
Iraq has no navy and controls only a tiny stretch of coastline in the very northern reaches of the Gulf. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein saw his fleet annihilated in the 1991 Gulf War and the country is penned in by an enormous US and British naval force.
An armada of US and allied vessels are also at hand to protect tankers and oil loading points, while the US coast guard has dis-patched special patrol vessels to boost maritime security.
Svein Erik Amundsen, managing director of Norwegian shipping giant Bergesen, says his company's philosophy has always been to be as flexible as possible even in adverse circumstances.
"There were no operational problems during the 1991 Gulf War, put it that way," he said.
Both companies said their sea-farers had no objections to entering waters close to a potential war zone -- another potential sticking point. During the 1991 Gulf War strongly-unionized Japanese sea-farers refused to man tankers and vessels steaming into Gulf waters.
Military analysts agree there is little chance of a protracted campaign of disruption in strategic choke points like the narrow Strait of Hormuz, far-removed from Iraq, and Iraq somehow organizing attacks on supertankers an unlikely worst-case scenario.
That would shut in exports from Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Iran as well as crucial Saudi production.
But analysts doubt Saddam would be able to launch an effective hit-and-run sabotage campaign much further than his own shoreline some 320km north.
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) yesterday said it expected to issue a sea warning for Typhoon Fung-Wong tomorrow, which it said would possibly make landfall near central Taiwan. As of 2am yesterday, Fung-Wong was about 1,760km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost point, moving west-northwest at 26kph. It is forecast to reach Luzon in the northern Philippines by tomorrow, the CWA said. After entering the South China Sea, Typhoon Fung-Wong is likely to turn northward toward Taiwan, CWA forecaster Chang Chun-yao (張峻堯) said, adding that it would likely make landfall near central Taiwan. The CWA expects to issue a land
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) yesterday said it is expected to issue a sea warning for Typhoon Fung-wong this afternoon and a land warning tomorrow. As of 1pm, the storm was about 1,070km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost point, and was moving west-northwest at 28 to 32kph, according to CWA data. The storm had a radius of 250km, with maximum sustained winds of 173kph and gusts reaching 209kph, the CWA added. The storm is forecast to pass near Luzon in the Philippines before entering the South China Sea and potentially turning northward toward Taiwan, the CWA said. CWA forecaster Chang Chun-yao (張峻堯) said
PREPARATION: Ferry lines and flights were canceled ahead of only the second storm to hit the nation in November, while many areas canceled classes and work Authorities yesterday evacuated more than 3,000 people ahead of approaching Tropical Storm Fung-wong, which is expected to make landfall between Kaohsiung and Pingtung County this evening. Fung-wong was yesterday morning downgraded from a typhoon to a tropical storm as it approached the nation’s southwest coast, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said, as it issued a land alert for the storm. The alert applies to residents in Tainan, Kaohsiung, Pingtung and Taitung counties, and the Hengchun Peninsula (恆春). As of press time last night, Taichung, Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Yilan, Miaoli, Changhua, Yunlin, Pingtung and Penghu counties, as well as Chiayi city and county had
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) yesterday issued a sea alert for Typhoon Fung-wong (鳳凰) as it threatened vessels operating in waters off the Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島), the Bashi Channel and south of the Taiwan Strait. A land alert is expected to be announced some time between late last night and early this morning, the CWA said. As of press time last night, Taoyuan, as well as Yilan, Hualien and Penghu counties had declared today a typhoon day, canceling work and classes. Except for a few select districts in Taipei and New Taipei City, all other areas and city
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