After the big spring art sales defied the struggling economy, exceeding expectations and even breaking records, art-world eyes are trained on the upcoming two weeks of auctions at the top houses to see if the robust market will continue.
Officials at Sotheby's and Christie's, which control about 90 percent of the world's live auctions of art, furniture and jewelry, range from bullish to cautiously optimistic going into their semi-annual Impressionist, modern and contemporary sales starting this week and expected to take in hundreds of millions of dollars.
With a protracted and costly price-fixing scandal that dogged them for more than two years virtually behind them, the grande dames of the rarefied auction world are focused on getting top prices for the Picassos, Cezannes, Modiglianis and Monets, some of which could fetch US$20 million or more.
"We're very bullish," said Marc Porter, international managing director for British-based Christie's International. "The demand seems to be at least as strong as what we saw last season," when both Christie's and New York-based Sotheby's had especially strong sales.
"This market is driven by scarcity and supply," Porter added. "Many people got rich during the boom (of the late 1990s) and have plenty to put into the art market. There seems to be no shortage of cash for those who want to buy ... and the London sales were incredibly strong," Porter said.
Sotheby's David Norman, co-chairman of Impressionist and modern art, was also confident the art market would continue to defy the discouraging performance of world financial markets. "I'm cautiously optimistic," he said.
"If I was just looking at the pre-sale response (from clients), I would be absolutely optimistic," Norman said. "Collectors are still in a very good position to acquire paintings, and many have said, 'If I had bought another Monet or a Picasso instead of Enron shares, I would have been a lot happier over the past three years.'"
Christie's Porter cited the appeal of high-end art -- "the comfort and security that one is buying something that is quite tangible, rather than securities."
But Norman said, "You can't ignore the fact that there's uncertainty in the world, and there's no way to predict how people will be bidding." He added: "I have not seen any evidence that anyone is thrown off by the economy. The very wealthy still have great liquidity and resources."
Private dealers and gallery owners said that while the market for high-end art remained buoyant, there was a growing concern due to the struggling economy.
"There's a bit more caution, and that caution is coming at the same time prices are at historic highs," said Paul Gray, co-owner of the Richard Gray Gallery in New York and Chicago, which sells modern works. "I'm certainly not a pessimist, but that's a recipe for quietness."
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