East Asia is on track to post 5.8 percent economic growth this year, slightly better than earlier forecast, despite uncertainty surrounding the US recovery, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said yesterday.
The Manila-based bank raised its growth forecast for the region by 0.6 percentage points, saying the global trade recovery and strengthening domestic demand should lead to more balanced economic expansion.
It conceded in its quarterly Asian Economic Monitor (AEM) report that "risks to the US recovery have increased" with a recent stock market slide, lower retail sales in May and softening consumer sentiment in June.
"Yet so far, these risks appear to be manageable and are unlikely to derail the moderate recovery in the US forecast in the April AEM."
East Asia's exports fell last year, due in a large part to recession in the US and Japan and the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Economic growth in the region subsequently slid to 4.3 percent, the lowest rate since 1998 during the Asian crisis.
"With a moderate recovery still the most likely outcome for the US, GDP growth for Japan revised upwards, and growth prospects unchanged for Europe, East Asia continues to face a favorable external environment," it said.
China's economic growth should lead the region this year at 7.4 percent, rising to 7.7 percent in 2003. South Korea's projected 6.1 percent growth this year, followed by a 6 percent expansion in 2003, would move it closer to its historical trend, it said.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), excluding Brunei and Myanmar, should see average growth of 3.8 percent this year, further strengthening to 4.7 percent the following year, it said.
The countries included in the ASEAN forecast are Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
"The more open economies are picking up at a faster pace. This is to be expected as the resurgence in growth is driven primarily by a rise in global demand for the region's exports, although domestic demand has played a complementary role," it said.
ADB had forecast in April that East Asia would see a moderate rebound from the economic slowdown last year. The recovery has been accompanied by subdued inflation, while most regional currency exchange rates, having remained stable against the US dollar in the first quarter of this year, have since appreciated.
The report said the appreciation should not dampen the rebound because most of the region's currencies have depreciated against the yen and the euro.
"With the maintenance of political stability and improvements in prudential indicators in most countries of the region, domestic risks to East Asia's current economic rebound appear to be receding somewhat," the bank said.
Almost all of these countries continue to run current account surpluses, foreign exchange reserves have improved significantly, and the ratios of short-term debt to total debt and foreign debt to GDP were now lower than during the Asian crisis, the bank said.
DEFENDING DEMOCRACY: Taiwan shares the same values as those that fought in WWII, and nations must unite to halt the expansion of a new authoritarian bloc, Lai said The government yesterday held a commemoration ceremony for Victory in Europe (V-E) Day, joining the rest of the world for the first time to mark the anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe. Taiwan honoring V-E Day signifies “our growing connections with the international community,” President William Lai (賴清德) said at a reception in Taipei on the 80th anniversary of V-E Day. One of the major lessons of World War II is that “authoritarianism and aggression lead only to slaughter, tragedy and greater inequality,” Lai said. Even more importantly, the war also taught people that “those who cherish peace cannot
Taiwanese Olympic badminton men’s doubles gold medalist Wang Chi-lin (王齊麟) and his new partner, Chiu Hsiang-chieh (邱相榤), clinched the men’s doubles title at the Yonex Taipei Open yesterday, becoming the second Taiwanese team to win a title in the tournament. Ranked 19th in the world, the Taiwanese duo defeated Kang Min-hyuk and Ki Dong-ju of South Korea 21-18, 21-15 in a pulsating 43-minute final to clinch their first doubles title after teaming up last year. Wang, the men’s doubles gold medalist at the 2020 and 2024 Olympics, partnered with Chiu in August last year after the retirement of his teammate Lee Yang
The Philippines yesterday criticized a “high-risk” maneuver by a Chinese vessel near the disputed Scarborough Shoal (Huangyan Island, 黃岩島) in a rare incident involving warships from the two navies. The Scarborough Shoal — a triangular chain of reefs and rocks in the contested South China Sea — has been a flash point between the countries since China seized it from the Philippines in 2012. Taiwan also claims the shoal. Monday’s encounter took place approximately 11.8 nautical miles (22km) southeast” of the Scarborough Shoal, the Philippine military said, during ongoing US-Philippine military exercises that Beijing has criticized as destabilizing. “The Chinese frigate BN 554 was
The number of births in Taiwan fell to an all-time monthly low last month, while the population declined for the 16th consecutive month, Ministry of the Interior data released on Friday showed. The number of newborns totaled 8,684, which is 704 births fewer than in March and the lowest monthly figure on record, the ministry said. That is equivalent to roughly one baby born every five minutes and an annual crude birthrate of 4.52 per 1,000 people, the ministry added. Meanwhile, 17,205 deaths were recorded, resulting in a natural population decrease of 8,521, the data showed. More people are also leaving Taiwan, with net
RSS