Star Wars: Episode II -- Attack of the Clones will open as the top-selling movie this weekend, though the George Lucas science-fiction adventure won't break recent records set by Spider-Man, analysts predicted.
Attack of the Clones, distributed by News Corp's 20th Century Fox studio, debuts today in 3,161 theaters in North America. Analysts said it may gross US$90 million to US$100 million in its first four days. Sony Corp.'s Spider-Man opened in 3,615 theaters on May 3 and brought in US$114.8 million in its first weekend. Clones, which is opening simultaneously in 74 countries, debuts tomorrow in Taiwan.
PHOTO: REUTERS
The previous movie in the series, Star Wars: Episode I -- The Phantom Menace, debuted in May 1999 with US$105.7 million in its first five days and eventually grossed US$431 million in North America. Until Spider-Man, it held records for the fewest days to top US$100 million and US$200 million. Analysts said they expect the latest edition to generate similar sales.
"Clearly this is going to be a huge opening," said Kevin Skislock, an analyst at Laguna Research Partners who follows the movie-theater industry. "I think the big story is going to be what kind of legs does this movie have," meaning how long the film will attract large audiences after its debut weekend.
Spider-Man needed only three days to pass US$100 million and nine days to reach US$200 million.
Attack of the Clones, directed by Lucas and made by his closely held Lucasfilm Ltd, is the second in a series of "prequels" to the original trilogy. The newest film stars Ewan McGregor, Natalie Portman, Hayden Christensen and Samuel L. Jackson.
Clones is likely to debut with about US$100 million in its first four days, Skislock said. Adam Farasati, an analyst with Reel Source, which tracks box office sales, forecast an opening in the low US$90 million range.
The film isn't expected to break the records set by Spider-Man because it's not playing in as many theaters and is longer than the comic-book movie, allowing fewer shows a day, analysts said. In addition, it probably won't have the same appeal across all ages and both genders as Spider-Man. Still, Clones is "certainly going to be one of the biggest openers of the summer," Farasati said.
Today's debut may result in employees skipping work and may cost the US economy more than US$319 million in lost wages, according to a survey by Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc, an outplacement company. The film, which was shot using Sony-made digital cameras, may attract as many as 5.7 million moviegoers in its first day.
Dave Davis, an analyst at Houlihan, Lokey, Howard and Zukin, forecast that Clones will take in US$300 million to US$400 million in its full run in North America and another US$600 million internationally.
"The picture is going to open up huge, there's no doubt about it," said Rick Myerson, executive vice president and general sales manager at 20th Century Fox. "The movie is positioned to play all summer."
Still, some of the film's momentum may already be under assault. Digital copies of the space fantasy are already available for download from the Internet.
Advance sales for Star Wars led all other films combined.
At online ticket-seller Fandango Inc, Spider-Man accounted for about 98 percent of the company's sales Tuesday, Fandango spokeswoman Sallie Green said.
20th Century Fox will get a "modest" distribution fee for releasing Star Wars, News Corp President Peter Chernin said Tuesday on a conference call to discuss the company's earnings.
"Star Wars is just a straight distribution" deal, analyst Davis said. "It's all profit. They really have no risk."
The latest instalment in the Star Wars saga will open in most of the world today and tomorrow. Countries where it will not open this weekend include Japan, South Korea, some parts of Africa and Latin America.
The film will be shown in theaters equipped with digital projectors in 17 markets, including the US and Canada, the largest digital presentation for any movie.
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