Microsoft Corp, which plans to start selling its Xbox video-game console Nov. 8, may miss targets for 600,000 to 800,000 first-day shipments of the machine, analysts said.
Microsoft's retail and game-publishing partners say the largest software maker is likely to have fewer consoles available when Xbox goes on sale and may not meet its goal of shipping 1 million to 1.5 million this year, analysts said. Microsoft declined to comment.
"We have heard that Microsoft's numbers are a little bit smaller," said Take-Two Interactive Software Inc President Paul Eibeler on a conference call yesterday to discuss Take-Two's fourth-quarter forecasts. Take-Two is developing several games for Xbox.
The success of Microsoft's first foray into the game-console market depends on providing a steady supply to consumers. The machine faces stiff competition from Sony Corp's PlayStation 2, which went on sale last year, and Nintendo Co.'s GameCube, to be released in the US on Nov. 18.
Retailers and publishers are saying Microsoft will have 300,000 consoles available on the first day, and 750,000 by the end of the year, said Robert DeLean, an analyst at Morgan Keegan.
He wouldn't name the companies.
Edward Williams, an analyst at Gerard Klauer Mattison, said Microsoft will only have 300,000 and 400,000 units available on Nov. 8, based on information from retailers and game publishers.
Microsoft Spokesman James Bernard Wednesday said the company won't know how many units it will have for sale on the first day until production at a plant in Mexico reaches full capacity, Reuters reported earlier Thursday. Bernard didn't respond to requests for comment Thursday.
Delays and shortages are common in the game-console market.
Sony delivered only half the 1 million-unit supply it promised when it released PlayStation 2 in the US. Still, any shortage will hurt Microsoft's attempts to take market share from the more experienced Sony, DeLean said.
"Sony recovered fully, but if there's no Xbox on the shelf, Sony continues to build its lead," he said. DeLean rates Take-Two "outperform" and doesn't own the shares.
In August, Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Eric Ross said Microsoft was three to four weeks behind schedule in manufacturing Xbox, which might mean the company wouldn't be able to deliver the expected number of consoled on Nov. 8. Ross said production probably was delayed by a design flaw by motherboard maker Intel Corp. Motherboards hold the chips that power computers and electronic devices. Microsoft denied there was a flaw and said it was on schedule for the introduction.
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