Walt Disney Co's Pearl Harbor may be a critical failure and the top-selling movie ever.
The film depicting Japan's attack on the US Navy in 1941 opened this weekend in 3,200 theaters in the US and Canada, starring Oscar winner Ben Affleck and British actress Kate Beckinsale.
Several reviewers panned it. Chicago Sun-Times critic Roger Ebert said the movie was "directed without grace, vision or originality." The New York Times suggested viewers interested in the Pearl Harbor story watch From Here to Eternity. Analysts say it doesn't matter. The movie will gross US$70 million to US$100 million this weekend alone, they estimated, and Disney Chairman Michael Eisner predicted it will be one of the top-selling movies in the company's history.
PHOTO: AFP
"This is review-proof," said Hal Vogel, chief executive of Vogel Capital in New York. "It's bulletproof. The reviews could say it's the worst movie in the world and they will still" come.
Analysts estimate Disney spent US$135 million to make the film and millions more to market it. Pearl Harbor might generate as much as US$1.5 billion in ticket sales worldwide, Salomon Smith Barney Inc analyst Jill Krutick predicts. News Corp and Viacom Inc's 1997 release Titanic is the biggest-grossing movie, with US$1.84 billion.
"If it's physically possible to have a US$100 million weekend, Pearl Harbor has got a good shot at it," said Art Levitt, chief executive of online ticketing service Fandango Inc.
Pearl Harbor tells the story of Japan's bombing of the US naval fleet in Hawaii, which drew the Americans into World War II, as both an action picture and a romantic drama. It features two pilots, played by Affleck and Hartnett, who fall in love with a nurse.
It's directed by Michael Bay and produced by Jerry Bruckheimer, the same team behind action pictures Armageddon and The Rock.
Not all of the reviews were negative. San Francisco Chronicle critic Mick LaSalle said the film "gets the job done." The movie co-stars Cuba Gooding Jr, Alec Baldwin, Jon Voight, Dan Aykroyd and model James King. It's written by Randall Wallace, screenwriter of Braveheart, which won an Academy Award for best picture in 1996.
"There are no sure things in the entertainment industry, but this comes close," Eisner said in a letter to employees. "I've been telling anybody who would listen that this will be our biggest live-action film ever."
Fandango's advance ticket sales for Pearl Harbor are more than four times higher than for The Mummy Returns, Levitt said. Mummy Returns took in US$68.1 million in a three-day opening weekend earlier this month, the biggest non-holiday debut ever.
Vivendi Universal SA's The Lost World: Jurassic Park, which opened on Memorial Day weekend in 1997, holds the record for biggest debut ever, taking in US$90.2 million through Monday of the holiday weekend.
Disney's best-selling live-action film was 1999's The Sixth Sense, which opened with US$26.7 million on a three-day weekend and eventually brought in US$662 million worldwide. Some analysts expect Disney's new release to top those numbers.
Analysts' estimates for worldwide ticket sales for Pearl Harbor varied, with ABN Amro's Spencer Wang predicting US$622.5 million, David Miller of Sutro & Co estimating US$475 million to US$525 million and Salomon's Krutick's forecasting US$375 million to US$1.5 billion. With a budget of US$135 million and marketing costs of US$70 million to US$85 million, according to analysts, Pearl Harbor is one of the most expensive films ever. Producer Bruckheimer and director Bay, along with Affleck, have agreed to defer their advance salaries and instead will get a percentage of the film's profits, Wang said in a report this week.
Krutick estimates Pearl Harbor could add US$0.02 to US$0.25 a share to Disney's earnings over the next several years.
Wang sees the film adding US$0.02 a share to Burbank, California-based Disney's earnings over the next five years.
"It's an important film and it will do very well, but it's not something that you will pile into the stock because of it," Vogel said.
Pearl Harbor is currently the highest-priced film title on the Hollywood Stock Exchange at US$200, ahead of Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, which is trading at US$188, and Star Wars: Episode II at US$168. The price indicates what visitors to the site expect a film will gross in its first four weeks.
Analysts said Pearl Harbor may not be able to match Titanic's box-office gross because the new film isn't likely to have strong "word of mouth" among moviegoers. Pearl Harbor probably won't see the same kind of repeat business among young fans that led to the long-running success of Titanic, they said.
"It's highly unlikely that this will film go anywhere near the Titanic's level," said Dave Davis, a film industry analyst at Houlihan, Lokey, Howard & Zukin in Los Angeles. ET the Extra-Terrestrial and Titanic were "two movies that defined new levels of performance." Moviegoers, surveyed after seeing Pearl Harbor in New York City, had mixed reactions.
"Long and boring," said Matt Anchondo, 30, who saw the movie at the AMC Empire 25 in Times Square. "It would be much better with a remote."
The bombings were Carlos Garcia's favorite part of the movie. "It's good," said Garcia, 23, of Manhattan, who said he would tell friends to see it.
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