Rapidly melting antarctic ice threatens to dramatically slow deep-water currents in the world’s oceans, and could affect the spread of fresh water, oxygen and life-sustaining nutrients for centuries, scientists said.
New modelling points to faster antarctic ice melts driving a “substantial slowdown” of water circulation in the ocean depths if global carbon emissions remain high, researchers said in a study published in Nature on Wednesday.
The “overturning circulation” of waters in the deepest reaches of the oceans are expected to slow by 40 percent by 2050 in a high-emissions scenario, the study said about impacts that are to last “for centuries to come.”
Photo: Reuters
If the model holds true, the deep ocean current is set to be “on a trajectory that looks headed towards collapse,” said University of New South Wales (UNSW) climate professor Matthew England, who coordinated the study.
Trillions of tonnes of cold, highly salty and oxygen-rich water sink around Antarctica each year, sending a deep-water current northwards to the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic oceans, scientists said.
The greater volumes of melting ice make the antarctic waters less dense and salty, slowing the deep-water circulation with consequences for climate, sea level and marine ecosystems.
“If the oceans had lungs, this would be one,” England said.
If the oceans become stagnant below 4,000m, “this would trap nutrients in the deep ocean, reducing the nutrients available to support marine life near the ocean surface,” he added.
UNSW emeritus professor John Church, who was not involved in the study, said there are many uncertainties about the impact of a declining deep ocean circulation.
“It seems almost certain that continuing on a high greenhouse gas emission pathway will lead to even more profound effects on the ocean and the climate system,” Church said.
“The world urgently needs to drastically reduce our emissions to get off the high-emission pathway we are currently following,” he said.
The study team included lead author Li Qian of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and coauthors from the Australian National University and the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation.
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