Europeans and people living on the US east coast are more likely to experience mild temperatures than a deep freeze this winter, easing any potential heating-fuel constraints at a time when energy costs are soaring.
Scientists at the Copernicus Climate Change Service, which updated its seasonal outlook Thursday, said that temperatures are likely to be significantly above normal during the peak heating season from December to February.
Abnormally high temperatures could slacken demand for natural gas, which European countries have been rushing to put into storage. Russia’s war on Ukraine propelled prices for the fuel to record heights, contributing to a cost-of-living crisis across the region.
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The scientists said there is a 50 to 60 percent probability that the UK, much of the Mediterranean coast and parts of central Europe would experience temperatures significantly above average. The rest of the continent has a 40 to 50 percent chance of significantly exceeding historical averages.
The Copernicus model brings together data from scientists in the UK, France, Germany, Italy and the US. The EU program uses billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations for its monthly and seasonal forecasts.
Yet the outlook for a mild winter is not universal among meteorologists. Commercial US forecaster Commodity Weather Group said that Europe’s winter is likely to be colder than last year, and slightly cooler than the 10-year average, as measured by heating degree days.
That is a way to use temperatures to gauge energy demand, with higher numbers reflecting more cold and more fuel being burned for heating.
Commodity Weather calculates a value of 2,330 this winter, compared with last year’s 2,085 and the 10-year average of 2,233, meteorologist William Henneberg said.
Europe’s winter is likely to be volatile, marked by shifting periods of cold and mild readings.
“We certainly can’t rule out a big cold outbreak at some point in the winter, but the overall pattern may be driven more by weak cold fronts moving through frequently,” he said.
The continent is racing to find substitutes for ever-dwindling supplies of natural gas from Russia as the Ukraine war boosts consumer bills and shoves economies to the brink of recession.
As winter unfolds across the northern hemisphere, meteorologists are closely watching the Arctic. Circling the pole is a girdle of winds called the polar vortex, and if they should weaken, frigid air could come spilling south into the US, Asia or Europe.
It is difficult to predict when the vortex might break down. Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, has spent years searching for hints.
One potential indicator is the amount of snow building up across Siberia in October. If snowfall is strong, then Europe, North America or Asia is likely to get blasted with an Arctic wave, Cohen said.
Todd Crawford, director of meteorology at commercial forecaster Atmospheric G2, sees no evidence of a breakdown that could foster the type of killer cold that crippled the Texas electrical grid last year.
“At this time, there are no strong reasons to believe a notably weakened vortex is likely this winter,” Crawford said.
Another important piece will be high and low pressure over Greenland called the North Atlantic Oscillation.
That is “one of the main signals affecting Europe,” said Bradley Harvey, a meteorologist with the commercial forecaster Maxar.
Weather watchers should look for signs that the oscillation is shifting to its negative phase, because that means Europe and the eastern US could turn frigid. A positive phase can mean a milder winter.
Copernicus also predicted that temperatures across almost the entire continental US should significantly surpass average, with certainty exceeding 70 percent in Texas and other parts of the southern US.
The Tokyo and Beijing regions also are predicted to avoid excessive cold.
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