The eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East are warming almost twice as fast as the global average, with temperatures projected to rise up to 5°C by the end of the century if no action is taken to reverse the trend, a new report said.
The region would experience “unprecedented” heat waves, more severe and longer-lasting droughts, and dust storms and rainfall shortages that would “compromise water and food security” for the region’s 400 million people, a summary of the report released on Tuesday said.
The eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East are more susceptible to warming trends because of their unique natural characteristics, like large desert expanses and lower water levels, the study said.
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The report was prepared by an international group of scientists overseen by The Cyprus Institute’s Climate and Atmosphere Research Center, and the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry. Originally published in June in the journal Reviews of Geophysics, it aims to underscore the effects of climate change in the region ahead of the UN climate summit in Egypt in November.
Arid climate zones would expand northward and snow-capped mountains in more northern climes would diminish during this century, said George Zittis, who coauthored the report.
Although the sea level in the region is projected to rise at a pace similar to other global estimates, many Mediterranean countries are unprepared to deal with it, he said.
“This would imply severe challenges for coastal infrastructure and agriculture and can lead to the salinization of coastal aquifers” Zittis said.
Saltier water from rising sea levels and low rainfall can severely damage crops and fisheries.
The region’s most vulnerable groups, including elderly people, children and pregnant women, would face major health challenges, said Max Planck Institute director Jos Lelieveld, who was part of the study.
Many European nations already have initiatives to aid vulnerable people in extreme weather.
The region is rapidly overtaking the EU as a source of greenhouse gases and becoming a major emitter on a global scale, the paper suggests.
China, the US, India and the EU are currently the world’s largest emitters. Several Mediterranean countries are also part of the European bloc.
If the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5°C is met, it would limit the temperature increase in the region to about 2°C, the study said.
The report urged the region to quickly reduce its reliance on greenhouse gas emissions, especially in the energy and transportation sectors.
The study’s projections for the region are in line with other scientific studies, including a major report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change earlier this year.
The UN’s climate report termed the Mediterranean as a climate change “hotspot” which is vulnerable to droughts, coastal erosion and heat waves.
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