Rattled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Finland yesterday began a process that could lead to seeking NATO membership, a move that would infuriate Moscow.
The assault on Ukraine sparked a dramatic U-turn in public and political opinion in Finland and Sweden regarding their long-held policies of military non-alignment.
Attempting to join NATO would almost certainly be seen as a provocation by Moscow, for whom the alliance’s expansion on its borders has been a prime security grievance.
A report commissioned by the Finnish government that was released yesterday examines the “fundamentally changed” security environment, the Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.
An opening debate is planned for next week, which is expected to analyze security options for Finland, which shares a 1,340km border with Russia.
Former Finnish prime minister and long-time NATO advocate Alexander Stubb said that Finland making a membership application is “a foregone conclusion.”
Finland has a long history with Russia.
In 1917 it declared independence after 150 years of Russian rule.
During World War II, its vastly outnumbered army fought off a Soviet invasion, before a peace deal saw it cede several border areas to the Soviet Union.
During the Cold War, Finland remained neutral in exchange for guarantees from Moscow that it would not invade.
So the turnaround in sentiment on NATO would have been unthinkable just a few months ago.
As recently as January, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said that membership was “very unlikely” during her time in office.
However, after two decades of public support for membership remaining steady at 20 to 30 percent, the war in Ukraine caused a surge in those in favor to more than 60 percent, multiple polls showed.
Public statements gathered by newspaper Helsingin Sanomat suggest that half of Finland’s 200 members of parliament now support membership, while only 12 oppose it.
Others say they will announce a position after detailed discussions.
The government said it hopes to build a parliamentary consensus over the next few weeks, with members of parliament due to hear from security experts.
Marin expects a decision “before midsummer,” with many analysts predicting Finland could submit a bid in time for a NATO summit in June.
Any membership bid must be accepted by all 30 NATO states, a process that could take four months to a year.
Finland has so far received public assurances from NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg that the door remains open to membership.
Unlike Finland, Sweden shares no land border with Russia and the two countries have not been at war for two centuries.
Nonetheless, pro-NATO sentiment is also rising among Swedes who “are realizing that they might find themselves in the same position as Ukraine, a lot of sympathy, but no military help,” said Robert Dalsjo, research director at the Swedish Defence Research Agency.
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