Most people across Europe think Russia would invade Ukraine this year, and believe NATO and the EU should stand by Kiev, according to a study whose authors suggest the crisis could end up dramatically changing the way Europeans view their security.
“The data suggests something of a geopolitical awakening in Europe,” said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, which carried out the polling in seven countries, accounting for two-thirds of the bloc’s population.
“EU states have been portrayed as divided, weak and absent on Ukraine, but European citizens are united: They agree [Russian President] Vladimir Putin may pursue military action, and that Europe, together with its NATO partners, should ride to Ukraine’s aid,” he added.
Photo: EPA-EFE
The poll showed there was “no longer much truth in the cliche that Europeans believe war is unthinkable and take peace for granted. They perceive their world as being in a prewar rather than postwar state,” the study’s authors said.
The polling, carried out late last month, showed that majorities in six of the seven countries surveyed believed Russia would invade Ukraine this year, with those nearest to Europe’s eastern border generally most convinced.
Finland (44 percent) was a slight outlier, but elsewhere, 51 percent of respondents in France and Italy, 52 percent in Germany, 55 percent in Sweden, 64 percent in Romania and 73 percent in Poland said they thought a Russian invasion was likely this year.
Majorities in all seven countries saw NATO and its 30 member states as the main defenders of Ukrainian sovereignty, but also clearly felt the EU bore a strong responsibility to come to Ukraine’s defense in the event of Russian aggression.
In Finland, 56 percent of respondents felt the EU would be well-positioned to come to Ukraine’s aid and 59 percent thought NATO would. Elsewhere, the figures were: 53 percent and 55 percent for France; 47 percent and 50 percent for Germany; 64 percent and 67 percent for Italy; 80 percent and 79 percent for Poland; 57 percent and 63 percent for Romania; and 61 percent and 64 percent for Sweden.
Asked whom they most trusted to protect EU citizens’ interests if Russia did invade Ukraine, at least half of those surveyed in each country — rising to more than 60 percent in Poland, Sweden, Italy and Romania — said they trusted the EU. In two countries, Sweden and Finland, trust in the EU was even greater than in NATO.
Trust in Washington as being equally committed to defending EU citizens’ interests was markedly lower, with more respondents in all countries bar Poland and Romania saying they trusted Germany more than the US. Even in Poland, NATO (75 percent) and the EU (67 percent) were seen as more reliable than the US.
“While most Europeans still trust NATO to defend Europe, ‘NATO’ is no longer just another name for ‘the US,’” the authors said. “Europeans trust NATO to protect their interests more than they trust the US to do so.”
The study also showed Europeans were prepared to accept significant, potentially long-term threats as a result of defending Ukraine, including the possible arrival of large numbers of refugees, higher energy costs, economic coercion, cyberattacks and the threat of Russian military action.
Respondents in Poland, Romania and Sweden were more likely to say that coming to Ukraine’s aid was “worth the risk” of all these possible consequences, with 53 percent of those surveyed in Poland in particular saying that supporting Ukraine was even worth the risk of possible military action aimed at their country.
However, citizens in France and Germany were the least willing to bear any of these potential burdens — suggesting they believed the possible costs of doing so might outweigh the rewards, the report’s authors said.
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