South African hospitals are bracing for a surge in admissions as the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 drives a sharp rise in COVID-19 infections and as more evidence emerges about the severity of the illness caused by the strain.
The seven-day moving average of daily new cases in the country rose to 10,055 last week, from fewer than 300 three weeks earlier.
Hospitalizations also picked up, but remain relatively low, with admissions standing at 3,268 on Sunday. Whether there would be a deluge of new patients is the biggest question.
Severe symptoms in patients who contracted earlier variants typically developed between one and three weeks after they were diagnosed, according to the South African National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD).
While anecdotal evidence and initial data analysis from one hospital complex suggests that Omicron might cause milder illness, especially among those who have been vaccinated or previously infected, it would become clearer this week or next if that is indeed the case.
“Our admissions are doubling every day,” said Fareed Abdullah, director at the South African Medical Research Council and an infectious disease doctor at the Steve Biko Academic Hospital in Pretoria.
Still, while it remains too early to tell, the wave of infections appears to be different from earlier ones, he said.
The first Omicron mutations were detected in South Africa and neighboring Botswana last month, with its discovery formally announced on Nov. 25. The variant is now the overwhelmingly dominant one in South Africa.
The authorities say they are ready for a patient influx.
“We have activated resurgence plans in all healthcare facilities,” South African National Department of Health Chief Director Ramphelane Morewane said. “All hospital beds that were available in the third wave are being readied for this wave. We have strategic reserves in hospitals to prevent shortages of equipment.”
Hospitals were stretched to their limits during previous coronavirus surges, with reports of ambulances driving from facility to facility trying to find space for severely ill patients and oxygen supplies running out.
They currently have ample capacity, even in central Gauteng Province, which includes Johannesburg and Pretoria and is the global epicenter of the Omicron outbreak.
Netcare, which operates the country’s largest private healthcare network, had about 200 COVID-19 patients by late last week even though infections were rising rapidly, indicating that most cases were mild to moderate, its CEO Richard Friedland said.
There had been so-called “breakthrough infections” in people who had been vaccinated, most of them in people under the age of 30, he added.
As many as 68 percent of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the Pretoria area last month were younger than 40, an analysis of 640 admissions by the NICD showed.
The data was preliminary and trends might change, the institute said.
Individuals older than 50 accounted for 66.1 percent of those admitted during the third wave earlier this year.
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