China yesterday launched its long-awaited emissions trading system, a key tool in its quest to drive down climate change-causing greenhouse gases and go carbon neutral by 2060.
The scheme was launched as China, the world’s biggest carbon emitter, is seeking to take a global leadership role on the climate crisis in the lead up to a crucial UN summit in November.
China has hailed it as laying the foundations for what would become the world’s biggest carbon trading market, forcing thousands of Chinese companies to cut their pollution or face deep economic hits.
The launch came just days after the EU unveiled a detailed plan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
However, deep questions remain over the limited scale and effectiveness of China’s initial emission trading scheme, including the low price placed on pollution.
More broadly, analysts and experts say that much more needs to be done if China is to meet its environmental targets, which includes reaching peak emissions by 2030.
China first announced plans for a nationwide carbon market a decade ago, but progress was slowed by the influential coal-industry lobby and policies that prioritized economic growth over the environment.
The scheme is to set pollution caps for big-power businesses for the first time, and allows firms to buy the right to pollute from others with a lower carbon footprint.
The market would initially cover 2,225 big power producers that generate about one-seventh of the global carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels, International Energy Agency data showed.
Those power producers account for 30 percent of the 13.92 billion tonnes of Earth-warming gases belched out by Chinese factories in 2019.
Citigroup estimates that US$800 million worth of credits would be bought for this year, rising to US$25 billion by the end of the decade.
That would make China’s trading scheme about one-third the size of Europe’s market, currently the biggest in the world.
The scheme was originally expected to be far bigger in scope, covering seven sectors including aviation and petrochemicals.
However, the government “pared down ambitions” as economic growth took precedence amid a COVID-19 pandemic-induced slowdown, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta said.
“China’s coal, cement and steel production have all gone up as the government pours in billions of dollars to energy-intensive sectors to boost growth after the pandemic,” Myllyvirta said. “Rules to limit emissions will disrupt this growth model.”
Another concern for environmentalists is the low price China is placing on pollution.
Opening trade at the market in Shanghai started off at 52.7 yuan (US$8) per tonne of carbon yesterday morning.
The average carbon price in China is expected to be about $4.60 this year — far below the average EU price of US$49.40 per tonne, Citic Securities said in a research note.
However China has characterised the launch as just the first step.
The scheme will expand to cover cement producers and aluminum makers from next year, said Zhang Xiliang (張希良), a professor at Beijing’s Tsinghua University and chief designer of the scheme.
“The goal is to expand the market to cover as many as 10,000 emitters responsible for about another 5 billion tonnes of carbon a year,” Zhang said.
Chinese state media have pointed out that the current version is already the world’s largest market when assessed by the amount of greenhouse gas emissions covered, rather than trading value.
Other concerns about the scheme include that a lack of technical know-how and continued pressure from powerful coal and steel lobbies could slow down progress.
Local officials and companies know little about accounting for emissions or even the basics of climate science, and regions that rely on coal and carbon-intensive industries for growth have been slow to join the scheme, said Huw Slater, a climate researcher at the China Carbon Forum.
“Officials are afraid that if they curb pollution too quickly, it could cut jobs and lead to social unrest,” Slater said.
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