Global carbon dioxide emissions have returned to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels and then some, threatening to put climate treaty targets for capping global warming out of reach, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said yesterday.
Energy-related emissions were 2 percent higher in December last year than in the same month a year earlier, driven by economic recovery and a lack of clean energy policies, the agency said in a report.
“The rebound in global carbon emissions toward the end of last year is a stark warning that not enough is being done to accelerate clean energy transitions worldwide,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in a statement. “If governments don’t move quickly with the right energy policies, this could put at risk the world’s historic opportunity to make 2019 the definitive peak in global emissions.”
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A year ago, the agency called on governments to put clean energy at the heart of economic stimulus plans, but the appeal appears mainly to have fallen on deaf ears.
Carbon pollution in China last year exceeded 2019 levels by more than 0.5 percent, despite a draconian, though brief, lockdown to halt the spread of COVID-19.
China — which accounts for more than 25 percent of global carbon dioxide output — was the only major economy to grow last year.
Other nations’ emissions are also climbing above pre-pandemic levels, the report found.
Emissions in India rose above 2019 levels from September last year as economic activity increased and virus restrictions were relaxed.
The rebound of road transport in Brazil from May last year drove a recovery in oil demand, while increases in gas demand at the end of the year pushed emissions above 2019 levels in the final quarter.
US emissions fell by 10 percent last year, but by December were approaching levels from a year earlier.
“If current expectations for a global economic rebound this year are confirmed — and in the absence of major policy changes in the world’s largest economies — global emissions are likely to increase in 2021,” Birol said.
A sharp surge in economic activity — and the pollution that comes with it — is more the norm than the exception after an economic downturn. Annual GDP growth and carbon dioxide emissions both spiked after the economic recession of 2008 and 2009.
However, as pressure builds to tackle the climate crisis, there are encouraging signs that major emitters are taking steps to decouple economic growth from carbon emissions, Birol said.
China’s surprise commitment to become carbon neutral by 2060, Washington’s ambitious new climate agenda along with the US re-entry into the Paris Agreement, and the EU’s “Green New Deal” all point in the right direction, he said.
“India’s stunning success with renewables could transform its energy future,” he added.
Global emissions plunged by almost 2 billion tonnes last year, the largest absolute decline in history. More than half of that decline was due to lower use of fuel for road transport and aviation.
The 2015 Paris Agreement enjoins nations to cap the rise in global temperatures “well below” 2°C compared with preindustrial levels, and to strive for a ceiling of 1.5°C if possible.
Earth’s surface is already 1.1°C warmer on average, enough to increase the frequency and intensity of deadly heat waves, droughts and storms made more destructive by rising seas.
The IEA in May plans to publish its first global road map on how the energy sector can reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
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