Post-Brexit trade talks between the EU and UK neared a decisive point yesterday, with the outcome highly uncertain and the threat of a wrenching “no-deal” mounting by the hour.
The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, briefed ambassadors from member states at a pre-dawn crisis meeting, warning that divisions were still stark after talks with his UK counterpart, David Frost, broke up overnight.
Barnier and Frost were to resume face-to-face talks later yesterday before reporting back to their respective bosses, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Photo: AFP
The two leaders were to speak by phone later in the day, a call that a senior diplomat said would assess where matters stood and was not yet the make-or-break moment.
Irish Taoiseach Micheal Martin warned the chances for a deal were only “50-50,” while sources close to the talks said that Sunday’s horsetrading was slow and expectations were low.
Barnier told the EU envoys that negotiations were still blocked over fishing rights, rules for fair trade and an enforcement mechanism, the thorniest problems since talks began eight months ago.
However, talks would continue, despite the tight timetable for the European Parliament to ratify an accord before the UK leaves the single market on Dec. 31, with one source saying that “substance will take precedence over the calendar.”
Ratcheting up the drama, a top UK minister was sent to Brussels for separate EU talks to discuss the two sides’ existing divorce treaty, which Britain has threatened to redraw.
The goal of the negotiations is to establish a trade relationship with zero tariffs and zero quotas in hopes of avoiding major disruptions come Jan. 1.
All eyes are on an EU summit on Thursday, when the outline of any deal — or an admission of the failure to find one — would be put to the bloc’s 27 leaders.
A source close to the talks said the situation was “very difficult” and that negotiations were in their “last useful days.”
“We are on a very narrow path and it is impossible to predict the outcome,” the source said.
Several sources said the hardest issue was how to guarantee fair trade in future ties and establish a quick penalty mechanism if either side were to backtrack on, for example, environmental or health standards.
London is very reluctant to accept a broad and binding arrangement, seeing it as an infringement on its new-found sovereignty after 47 years of EU membership.
“In essence, if the talks fail now, the two sides didn’t manage to agree what constitutes foul play and what to do about it,” an EU diplomat said.
Johnson has insisted Britain would “prosper mightily” whatever the outcome of the talks, but he would face severe political turbulence if he could not seal a deal.
Without a deal, tariffs would be levied on the huge volumes of trade passing between the UK and the European continent, through the Channel tunnel and by ship.
Martin said that “a no-deal would be very damaging to all concerned, to the United Kingdom, to the Irish economy and indeed to economies of member states as well.”
“It’s very, very important that common sense prevails here and that a deal is done,” he said.
France is seen as the most reluctant to compromise among the Europeans after repeated threats of a veto if a deal does not protect French interests.
In an unexpected twist, UK Minister Michael Gove traveled to Brussels to discuss the 10-month old Brexit divorce deal, on the same day as British parliament was to consider a bill that would violate it.
The European Parliament has said it would reject any trade deal if Britain delivers on its threat to undo the divorce agreement that guarantees an open border between UK-ruled Northern Ireland and the EU-member Republic of Ireland.
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