For the time being, all the polls seem to be going former US vice president Joe Biden’s way ahead of the Nov. 3 presidential election.
However, gamblers see a different reality and are putting their money on US President Donald Trump.
The Republican incumbent, who is seeking a second term, has slowly climbed back since late July to nearly even with the Democratic Party nominee. For some Australian and British bookmakers, Trump is the odds-on favorite.
Betting on national or local elections is illegal in the US. All the action is happening on foreign gambling sites — which Americans can sometimes access.
A US$100 wager on a Trump win today could bring the punter a return of US$190 if he notches the victory.
“There is no doubt that the momentum appears to have swung back into President Trump’s favor,” said Rupert Adams, a spokesman for British bookmaker William Hill, which has already accepted more than US$1.3 million in election bets.
Lee Price, a spokesman for Irish gambling brand Paddy Power, said that after a slowdown in betting activity due to the COVID-19 crisis, interest has “started to pick up again in recent weeks.”
“We think the Trump factor is sure to keep punters interested,” Price said.
Many who have placed their bets on Trump now are hoping for a repeat of 2016, when the Manhattan real-estate mogul staged a stunning comeback against the Democratic Party nominee, former US secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton to win the White House.
British bookmaker Betfair has taken in ￡10 million (US$13.3 million) in bets on the White House race since Aug. 23, on the eve of the Republican National Convention.
That brings their total so far to ￡72 million, compared with ￡33 million at the same point in the campaign in 2016.
Betfair is hoping to top the record of ￡199 million wagered in 2016, half of which came after polling stations closed, spokesman Darren Hughes said.
Beyond the main event, Paddy Power is taking bets on some quirky issues: Will Trump paint the White House gold? (500-1) Will he have an airport in Mexico named after him? (66-1)
However, Price said that the interest in those types of bets has waned a bit.
“Trump is less wacky, quirky and funny,” Price said, calling the president’s current behavior “just plain scary.”
Matthew Collins, a 29-year-old Australian sales consultant, placed 21 separate bets before the Republican convention — nearly all of them on Trump.
He picked the president to win again in November, but also as the winner of several specific states.
In all, he put down about A$20,000 (US$14,570) — a sum he won on a bet that Biden would choose US Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate.
Collins, who describes himself as politically left-leaning, said he thinks that Trump has gained momentum since his party’s convention, which came on the heels of the Democrats’ event.
“The Republicans seem to like America. They don’t hate their own country. I didn’t get that from the DNC [Democratic National Convention] so I think that their message on its face isn’t persuasive,” Collins said.
Nick Freiling, the chief executive of a market research firm, who bet US$300 on a Trump victory in traditionally Democratic Minnesota, said that it is normal for the gap between the candidates to narrow as November approaches.
The COVID-19 crisis is another major factor, he said — Trump faced sharp criticism for his handling of the pandemic, but the issue “is steadily falling out of our public consciousness, and people are less angry about things, generally.”
Collins said he did not believe the polls were “representative of reality” and said the margin of error “must be so high.”
For Freiling, “the polls may be of ‘likely voters’ and show Biden winning, but what about voters’ enthusiasm for their candidate [which correlates with turnout]? Trump is winning that battle by huge margins.”
“Watch where the money goes,” Collins said, predicting that Trump would dominate his three debates with Biden. “That’s what people really care about.”
He said that voters can lie to pollsters about who they are supporting, which could skew results.
Those with skin in the betting game are also keeping an eye on the likely massive proportion of votes cast by mail this year, due to COVID-19 concerns — a potential game changer.
“That feels like a situation that could get very messy,” Collins said.
REBUILDING: A researcher said that it might seem counterintuitive to start talking about reconstruction amid the war with Russia, but it is ‘actually an urgent priority’ Italy is hosting the fourth annual conference on rebuilding Ukraine even as Russia escalates its war, inviting political and business leaders to Rome to promote public-private partnerships on defense, mining, energy and other projects as uncertainty grows about the US’ commitment to Kyiv’s defense. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy were opening the meeting yesterday, which gets under way as Russia accelerated its aerial and ground attacks against Ukraine with another night of pounding missile and drone attacks on Kyiv. Italian organizers said that 100 official delegations were attending, as were 40 international organizations and development banks. There are
The tale of a middle-aged Chinese man, or “uncle,” who disguised himself as a woman to secretly film and share videos of his hookups with more than 1,000 men shook China’s social media, spurring fears for public health, privacy and marital fidelity. The hashtag “red uncle” was the top trending item on China’s popular microblog Sina Weibo yesterday, drawing at least 200 million views as users expressed incredulity and shock. The online posts told of how the man in the eastern city of Nanjing had lured 1,691 heterosexual men into sexual encounters at his home that he then recorded and distributed online. The
TARIFF ACTION: The US embassy said that the ‘political persecution’ against former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro disrespects the democratic traditions of the nation The US and Brazil on Wednesday escalated their row over US President Donald Trump’s support for former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, with Washington slapping a 50 percent tariff on one of its main steel suppliers. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva threatened to reciprocate. Trump has criticized the prosecution of Bolsonaro, who is on trial for allegedly plotting to cling on to power after losing 2022 elections to Lula. Brasilia on Wednesday summoned Washington’s top envoy to the country to explain an embassy statement describing Bolsonaro as a victim of “political persecution” — echoing Trump’s description of the treatment of Bolsonaro as
CEREMONY EXPECTED: Abdullah Ocalan said he believes in the power of politics and social peace, not weapons, and called on the group to put that into practice The jailed leader of a Kurdish militant group yesterday renewed a call for his fighters to lay down their arms, days before a symbolic disarmament ceremony is expected to take place as a first concrete step in a peace process with the Turkish state. In a seven-minute video message broadcast on pro-Kurdish Medya Haber’s YouTube channel, Abdullah Ocalan, the leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), said that the peace initiative had reached a stage that required practical steps. “It should be considered natural for you to publicly ensure the disarmament of the relevant groups in a way that addresses the expectations
RSS