Most of the meat people eat in 2040 would not come from slaughtered animals, according to a report that predicts 60 percent is to be either grown in vats or replaced by plant-based products that look and taste like meat.
The report by the global consultancy AT Kearney, based on expert interviews, highlights the heavy environmental impacts of conventional meat production and the concerns people have about the welfare of animals under industrial farming.
“The large-scale livestock industry is viewed by many as an unnecessary evil,” the report says. “With the advantages of novel vegan meat replacements and cultured meat over conventionally produced meat, it is only a matter of time before they capture a substantial market share.”
The conventional meat industry raises billions of animals and turns more than US$1 trillion per year, but the huge environmental impacts have been made plain in scientific studies, from emissions to wild habitats destroyed for farmland, and the pollution of rivers and oceans.
AT Kearney estimated that US$1 billion has been invested in vegan products, including by the companies that dominate the conventional meat market.
Other companies are working on growing meat cells in culture to produce real meat without needing to raise and kill animals.
No such products have yet reached consumers, but AT Kearney predicted that cultured meat is to dominate in the long term because it reproduces the taste and feel of conventional meat more closely than plant-based alternatives.
“The shift towards flexitarian, vegetarian and vegan lifestyles is undeniable, with many consumers cutting down on their meat consumption as a result of becoming more conscious towards the environment and animal welfare,” AT Kearney partner Carsten Gerhardt said.
The report estimates that 35 percent of all meat is to be cultured in 2040 and 25 percent would be vegan replacements.
It highlights the far greater efficiency of the alternatives to conventional meat.
Almost half the world’s crops are fed to livestock, but only 15 percent of the plant calories end up being eaten by humans as meat.
In contrast, cultured meat and vegan meat replacements retain about three-quarter of their input calories, the report says.
Potential customer uneasiness about cultured meat would not be a barrier, the report says, citing surveys in the US, China and India.
“Cultured meat will win in the long run. However, novel vegan meat replacements will be essential in the transition phase,” it says.
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