With President Bashar al-Assad seemingly poised to survive the Syrian civil war, Israeli leaders are growing nervous about the intentions of his Iranian patrons and their emerging corridor of influence across the region.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is agitating against Iran in global forums like this week’s UN General Assembly. The Israeli military is holding war games targeting the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah, and generals are issuing tough threats in hopes of avoiding what could be another ruinous Israeli entanglement in Lebanon, this time with Iranian advisers and troops on Israel’s doorstep.
Israel has long identified Iran as its biggest threat, citing its suspect nuclear program, development of long-range missiles and hostile rhetoric, but gains by Syrian troops and their Iranian-backed allies have given those concerns new urgency.
Israel fears the establishment of a Shiite “corridor,” with land links from Iran to Lebanon, allowing the movement of fighters and weapons across the region.
At the heart of those fears is Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia that battled Israel to a stalemate in a monthlong war in 2006.
The group has greatly beefed up its arsenal of rockets and missiles since then, and after years of fighting in Syria, is more battle-tested than ever.
In his UN address on Tuesday, Netanyahu warned that Iran was spreading a “curtain of tyranny and terror” across the region, and said Israel would defend itself.
“We will act to prevent Iran from establishing permanent military bases in Syria for its air, sea and ground forces. We will act to prevent Iran from producing deadly weapons in Syria or in Lebanon for use against us, and we will act to prevent Iran from opening new terror fronts against Israel along our northern border,” he said.
MILITARY DRILLS
Israel last week wrapped up its largest military exercise in two decades — mobilizing about 30,000 troops to train for the next war against Hezbollah.
In an exclusive interview with The Associated Press, the commander of the exercise, Major General Tamir Hayman, said that despite Hezbollah’s gains, the balance of power has greatly shifted in favor of Israel since 2006.
“If Hezbollah’s capabilities have grown linearly, ours have grown exponentially, in intelligence, in targets and in the ability to attack,” he said.
If fighting resumes, “the damage to Hezbollah will be severe, mortal and comprehensive,” he said.
Hayman said he was pleased with the performance of his troops, adding that the two-week drill should send a powerful message of deterrence.
“We have no intentions at this time to go out and defeat Hezbollah. Our goal is to maintain the quiet and stability in the north,” he said.
Israeli forces on Tuesday shot down what it said was a Hezbollah surveillance drone that veered too close to the Syrian border with Israel. The military said the unmanned aircraft was Iranian-made and launched from a Damascus airport before it was shot down near the Israeli-controlled side of the Golan Heights.
After six years of fighting that claimed at least 400,000 lives, al-Assad’s forces appear to have finally gained the upper hand as they recapture territory from the Islamic State group and opposition fighters.
Russia, which is waging an air campaign on behalf of al-Assad, Iran and Hezbollah, which have fighters on the ground, have provided crucial support and are expected to play a major role in post-war Syria.
“The vector is quite clear right now, with the Syrian army, Hezbollah and the Shiite militias gradually regaining control of large swaths of the country,” Israeli Intelligence Ministry Director-General Chagai Tzuriel said.
Israel has said any permanent presence of Iranian or Hezbollah troops along the Syrian border with Israel would be crossing a “red line,” hinting that it would be willing to take military action if needed.
Tzuriel warned of a “regional conflagration.”
RUSSIAN ROLE
Tzuriel said Russia could end up playing a positive role, because it wants to stabilize Syria.
He said the Russians realize that Iran could create friction not only with Israel, but also with the Sunni majority in the region.
“I think there is a good chance that it will limit and restrain Iran, Hezbollah and the Shiite militias,” he said.
However, that is far from clear. Netanyahu last month flew to Russia to discuss Syria with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but apparently returned home emptyhanded.
Israeli media last week said Russia had rejected an Israeli request to keep the Shiite forces at least 60km from the border. Neither side has commented on the reports.
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