Alarm over North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests, a germinal step to temper South China Sea disputes and unease over a disastrous siege by pro-Islamic State group militants are to be in the spotlight at an annual gathering of Southeast Asia’s top diplomats with their Asian and Western counterparts.
The 27 nations deploying their foreign ministers for three days of summitry and handshake photo-ops in Manila starting today include the main protagonists in long-tormenting conflicts led by the US, Russia, China, Japan and South and North Korea.
The Philippines plays host as this year’s chairman of ASEAN.
It is an unwieldy 10-nation collective of democracies, monarchies and authoritarian regimes founded half a century ago in the Cold War era, which prides itself for being a bulwark of diplomacy in a region scarred by a history of wars and interminable conflicts.
The main issues expected to dominate the meetings include the South China Sea, with Chinese and ASEAN foreign ministers to endorse a two-page framework of a long-sought code of conduct in the disputed waters when they meet today.
Taiwan also lays claim to many islands and other features in the area.
The Philippines calls the development diplomatic progress in efforts to ease a potential flashpoint.
Critics say the agreed outline of key principles is lopsidedly in China’s favor and suspect that Beijing might have consented to it to divert protests as it tries to complete land reclamations and fortify its artificial islands with a missile defense system.
While the framework carries hope for a diplomatic approach to the disputes, it noticeably failed to mention China’s construction of new islands and an arbitration ruling last year that invalidated the historic basis of Beijing’s claim to virtually the entire sea, a strategic waterway for commerce and defense.
China has dismissed the arbitration ruling, which was put forward by the Philippines, as a sham.
Regarding North Korea, Pyongyang’s two recent and successful ICBM tests has prompted the US and its allies to signal their intention to impose additional sanctions against Pyongyang through a UN resolution.
Along with South Korea and Japan, the US is also expected to lead a barrage of condemnations against Pyongyang at the ASEAN Regional Forum, an annual security conference to be held in Manila on Monday.
North Korea has confirmed that its top diplomat, Ri Yong-ho, will attend, raising the specter of a verbal showdown at the 27-nation forum, which also includes Pyongyang’s ally, China.
Ahead of the meeting, a senior US Department of State official told reporters in Washington that the US was moving to have North Korea suspended from the forum for going against its conflict-prevention objectives.
It is part of the US’ broader effort to isolate Pyongyang diplomatically and force it to end missile tests and abandon its nuclear weapons program.
However, removing North Korea from the grouping will be tough. There is no exclusion procedure and the forum decides by consensus, so any US move against Pyongyang can be defeated by any nation, including China.
“I think what we would expect to see this year at the meeting would be a general chorus of condemnation of North Korea’s provocative behavior and pretty serious diplomatic isolation directed at the North Korean foreign minister,” US Acting Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Susan Thornton said.
The ASEAN meetings are held under heavy security in Manila as thousands of Philippine troops press a major offensive to quell a siege by Islamic State group-linked militants that has dragged on for more than two months in southern Marawi and turned large swaths of the lakeside city into a smoldering battlefield.
The fighting has left nearly 700 combatants — including more than 520 gunmen — and civilians dead and displaced the entire population of the mosque-studded city.
The Marawi crisis has triggered concerns that the Islamic State group might be gaining a foothold in Southeast Asia through allied local militants, as it faces major setbacks in Syria and Iraq.
At the forum, the ministers are to strongly condemn “recent acts of terrorism,” without mentioning Marawi by name and reiterate their commitment to counterterrorism strategies, according to the draft communique.
Those steps include promoting moderation and harnessing “social media to counter the spread of terrorists’ narratives online.”
Additional reporting by staff writer
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