The Nobel Peace Prize-winning Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo (劉曉波) has deprived China’s dissident movement of a crucial figurehead at a time when political activism in China is being forced ever deeper underground and pro-democracy forces in Hong Kong are under threat.
The world had not heard from Liu since he was jailed in 2009 for writing a petition calling for political reform, but he remained an influential heavyweight of China’s democracy movement and an inspiration for opponents of the Chinese Communist Party.
His death in custody from cancer last week triggered rage and frustration among the dissident community, but also a sense of hopelessness as they face hardened repression under Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) administration.
There are fears that Liu’s supporters would now be targeted, particularly his wife Liu Xia (劉霞), who has been under house arrest since 2010.
Political analyst Willy Lam (林和立) said most of Liu’s friends were already under 24-hour surveillance and that the dissident community in general was “highly demoralized.”
“They realize they are going through a long winter with no light at the end of the tunnel,” said Lam, a politics professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
However, some say they plan to brave it out.
One of the country’s most prominent social activists Hu Jia (胡佳), 43, has vowed not to leave China despite being under police surveillance since his release from prison six years ago.
“I want to stay and make an impact on the country,” he said.
Liu’s death prompted an outpouring of grief in Hong Kong, where pro-democracy forces must also contend with an increasingly assertive Beijing.
“We have to face the same political system and oppression,” pro-democracy lawmaker Eddie Chu (朱凱迪) said. “There used to be some distance, but now it’s more intimately felt.”
One day after Liu died, the Hong Kong High Court disqualified four pro-democracy lawmakers from the territory’s Legislative Council following an unprecedented intervention from Beijing over the way they incorporated protests into their oaths of office last year.
Two lawmakers who advocate complete independence for Hong Kong — a concept that infuriates China — had already been ousted from the legislature.
Hong Kong still enjoys freedoms unseen on the mainland — thousands gathered for a memorial march to Liu on Saturday, while over the border even online tributes to him were removed.
However, a string of incidents, including the disappearance of a bookseller and a reclusive Chinese tycoon, have heightened concerns of Beijing’s political overreach.
When it was handed back to China by Britain in 1997, some hoped Hong Kong’s colonial institutions, such as an independent judiciary and partially elected legislature, would lead to liberalization over the border.
However, as China’s wealth and global clout skyrocketed, Hong Kong’s influence waned. Now it is seen by Beijing as a hotbed of subversion, particularly since mass protests calling for more democratic reform in 2014.
Xi warned any challenge to Beijing’s control over Hong Kong crossed a “red line” earlier this month when he visited the territory to mark 20 years since the handover.
University of Nottingham China Policy Institute director Jonathan Sullivan described the political environment as “increasingly circumscribed.”
“It remains to be seen if [the democracy movement] feels it can advance its agenda through the ‘legitimate’ political process, and if not will there be a resurgence of street politics?” Sullivan said.
The movement itself is struggling for direction, having splintered between veteran activists calling for change across China and younger Hong Kong-centric “localists” who say the territory must just fight for itself.
Analysts agree that by-elections for the seats of the ousted lawmakers would prove whether or not the pro-democracy message is alive and kicking.
Chu says the movement needs a clearer vision, but must also accept that change would not come quickly.
“Liu Xiaobo persevered, sacrificing even his life, not because he knew he would succeed, but because he saw himself as part of a long-term process,” Chu said. “Maybe Hong Kong is like this too. It’s not about setting a goal for victory at a certain time.”
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