Tue, Sep 27, 2016 page5

• Abe could be Japan’s longest-serving prime minister

  • Bloomberg
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  Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has so far warded off the curse that has afflicted many of his predecessors — a collapse in public support — despite presiding over a lackluster economy. He could yet become the longest-serving Japanese leader since World War II.

  Senior ruling party lawmakers are working to allow Abe to extend his tenure. Already in power for almost four years, a potential change in party rules could see him in office until at least 2021, as long as the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) keeps winning elections.

  That is even as Abe has failed to meet many of his own economic policy goals under the “Abenomics” banner — deflation remains hard to budge, a stronger yen is starting to hurt exporters, and his efforts to get more women into the workforce have struggled amid a shortage of childcare and care for older people. The economy has shrunk in five of the 14 quarters since he took office. And he has forged ahead with a bigger role for the military despite public unease in the strongly pacifist nation.

  

  Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe yesterday delivers a policy speech at the start of the new parliamentary session at the Diet in Tokyo, Japan.

  Photo: EPA

  However, while populist winds spread through many developed nations and put established leaders under pressure, Abe has retained broad public confidence; his Cabinet approval ratings are a creditable 50 to 60 percent. There is a lack of convincing alternatives in his own party, and he has been assisted by a weak opposition.

  The steady-as-she-goes mantra for Abe comes after a gaffe-prone first turn as prime minister almost a decade ago. While life is not necessarily much better for some people, a low jobless rate and decent corporate profits have meant it is not necessarily any worse.

  “People do not have much reason to complain when it comes to the economy,” said Takuji Okubo, chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors. “I think that is the most important backbone behind his popularity. People feel their jobs are secure.”

  Several surveys this month put voter approval at the highest level in two years, contrasting with the nosediving popularity experienced by the previous six administrations, including Abe’s own first government. Under his leadership, the ruling coalition has won four straight national elections.

  Despite losing several ministers to scandal, Abe has generally kept control of his party. His policies of increasing the defense budget and loosening restrictions on the Japan Self-Defense Forces, while divisive, could help him on the domestic front amid friction with China and an increasingly belligerent North Korea.

  Abe has vowed to focus on reforming working practices in Japan during the new parliamentary session, seeking to narrow the gulf in pay between regular and non-regular workers and allow more people to combine their roles as carers with paid work.

  “The key words of my economic policy will be investing in the future,” he told the Japanese parliament yesterday. “We will support families with children and expand care for the elderly,” so that no one with carer responsibilities is forced to give up their job, he said.

  The LDP has also begun debate on changing a rule that limits party leaders to two straight three-year terms. It aims to make a decision in time for the party convention next year, enabling Abe to potentially stand for re-election when his six years are up in 2018.

  That could see him stay on beyond the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. The move came after Abe appointed Toshihiro Nikai, a vocal proponent of the extension, as his second-in-command in the party hierarchy.

  If Abe were to step down after the Olympics he would have served almost nine years as prime minister — longer than anyone under the post-war political system. The LDP itself has been in power for most of the past 60 years.

  “Whatever we think of ‘Abenomics,’ we have to remember that the Japanese workforce is basically on a full employment basis right now,” said Jun Okumura, a visiting scholar at the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs.

  “Although the inflation target worries people who care about what the Bank of Japan does, in the meantime inflation is not hurting people with fixed incomes and new graduates are finding it much easier to find jobs,” Okumura said.

  Employment for new graduates rose to 74.7 percent this year — the sixth consecutive rise — and overall unemployment fell to 3 percent in July, its lowest since 1995.

  Most voters seem little concerned by the sluggish pace of economic change. A survey published by the Yomiuri newspaper this month found only 33 percent of respondents said they thought Abe’s policies would improve the economy, while 55 percent said they expected no such improvement. Still, 62 percent supported his Cabinet — the highest level since 2014.

  A poll published by the Nikkei newspaper yesterday found support for Abe’s Cabinet had slipped 4 percentage points to 58 percent, with 38 percent saying they approved of his economic policies.

  Tomoyo Matsushita, a 29-year-old employee at a trading firm, said she agreed with Abe’s agenda, but was yet to be convinced it was working.

  “I think ‘Abenomics’ has a valuable goal,” she said. “But I am still waiting for the economy to get better.”

  Longer leadership terms could provide stability, which would be beneficial, senior LDP lawmaker Hideki Makihara said in a recent interview with Bloomberg. He compared Japan with China, where presidents typically serve 10-year terms.
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