The East Asia-Pacific region is aging at a faster rate than any other place in history, the World Bank warned yesterday, a demographic shift likely to cramp public services and economic growth.
The region, which spans from Myanmar and China’s western borders to Japan, Papua New Guinea and the Pacific islands, is now home to a third of the world’s population aged older than 65 — about 211 million people.
That lurch toward older populations is to have a significant impact on economic growth in an area of the globe that has been financially booming for much of the last two decades, according to the study.
The report is titled Live Long and Prosper: Aging in East Asia and Pacific — a reference to the Vulcan salute from the Star Trek science-fiction series.
Sharp falls in birthrates and a rise in life expectancy are likely to heap pressure on public services, while economies are to struggle to fill the shortfall of working-age employees.
The region “has undergone the most dramatic demographic transition we have ever seen,” World Bank East Asia and Pacific regional vice president Axel van Trotsenburg said.
“All developing countries in the region risk getting old before getting rich,” he added.
Much of the swing toward a graying population is taken up by China — home to 130 million people older than 65 — but other middle-income nations like Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia are also swiftly aging.
Industrialized East Asian nations such as Japan and South Korea have already experienced decades of aging populations. Poorer nations, such as Laos, Cambodia and the Philippines, are not expected to see a significant swing toward an older demographic for another two decades or so.
The report’s authors warn most East Asian health systems are not prepared for the demands on healthcare and pensions posed by an aging populations, compounding the impact of a shrinking workforce.
Calling for “a comprehensive policy approach across the life cycle,” the report urged nations to build and invest in childcare, education, healthcare and pensions to offset the demographic time bomb.
The report recommends a range of reforms, such as encouraging more women to join the labor force, a policy Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is currently pushing with limited success.
Industrialized nations like Japan and South Korea also need to open their labor markets up to immigrants, something both nations are historically reluctant to do.
Middle-income nations like China, Vietnam and Thailand should also remove incentives in pension systems that often encourage workers to retire early or increase the retirement age, the bank said.
The report’s authors estimate that unless reforms are implemented, South Korea’s working age population is to decline by 15 percent by 2040. China, Japan and Thailand are to see a 10 percent reduction over the same period.
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