China’s campaign of island building in the South China Sea might soon quadruple the number of airstrips available to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the highly contested and strategically vital region.
The island construction work that is creating vast amounts of new acreage by piling sand on top of coral reefs is now moving into the construction stage, with buildings, harbors and, most importantly, runways appearing in recent months. China now operates one airfield at Woody Island (Yongxing Island, 永興島) in the Paracel Islands (Xisha Islands, 西沙群島) and satellite photographs show what appears to be work on two, possibly three, additional airstrips on newly built islands in the Spratly Islands (Nansha Islands, 南沙群島) to the east.
The bases could have a “significant impact on the local balance of power” by helping bolster the forward presence of Chinese Coast Guard and PLA Navy, Lowy Institute International Security Program director Euan Graham said. At a recent monthly briefing, Chinese Ministry of Defense spokesman Wu Qian (吳謙) declined to say how many airstrips China planned to build or what their purpose would be, repeating only that all military infrastructure was “purely for defensive purposes.”
Beijing claims almost all of the South China Sea and its islands and has created seven new features in the Spratly Islands since last year that are permanently above water totaling more than 800 hectares, according to satellite photos collected by US government agencies and private groups including the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
While China insists its artificial islands are justified and do not constitute a threat to stability, further militarization of the region seems certain given China’s increasingly robust assertions of its territorial claims.
Those perceptions were reinforced with the deployment of advanced J-11BH/BHS fighter aircraft to Woody Island that was revealed online in China in October. China’s military has declined to comment on the reports.
The island’s 2.4km runway is to soon be eclipsed by one more than 3km long on the artificial island built atop the Fiery Cross Reef (Yongshu Reef, 永暑礁) in the Spratly Islands, the satellite photos show. Another runway is being built on Subi Reef (Jhubi Reef, 渚碧礁), with signs of similar work underway on nearby Mischief Reef (Meiji Reef, 美濟礁).
Patrols by fighter aircraft based on the islands, most likely temporarily given the salty climate and frequent storms, could serve to intimidate other claimants to territory in the region and complicate regular operations by US forces which insist on freedom of navigation and overflight over the entire South China Sea.
“In periods of tension, the intimidation value of air patrols from the islands would be considerable,” Graham said.
The airfields would allow Chinese aircraft to refuel, repair and if necessary, rearm without having to fly the more than 1,000km to the nearest Chinese air base on Hainan, Federation of American Scientists China security expert Hans Kristensen said.
They would also be highly vulnerable to bombing in an actual conflict, although their presence alone would require additional planning and effort by opponents. Short of that, the issue grows murkier and more troublesome, especially if China were to announce a zone of air control over all or part of the South China Sea. In that case, the airstrips could be launching points for patrols, enforcement operations and possibly airstrikes.
China announced an initial air defense identification zone over much of the East China Sea in late 2013, a designation the US, Japan and others refused to recognize.
Early this month China conducted what PLA Air Force spokesman Colonel Shen Jinke (申進科) described as the latest “routine patrol” through the zone, featuring aircraft including H-6K long-range bombers, fighter jets and early warning aircraft.
Questioned on plans for a South China Sea zone, Wu said that would depend on threats to China’s interests and security.
“Therefore we will take into consideration a number of factors in making the decision,” Wu said.
Other countries also operate airstrips on their South China Sea holdings, but their size and level of sophistication are dwarfed by China’s new developments. Vietnam’s strip on Nanwei Island (南威島) is 550m, just long enough to accommodate slow-moving cargo and surveillance planes. Those operated by Taiwan on Itu Aba Island (Taiping Island, 太平島), the Philippines on Thitu Island (Jhongye Island, 中業島) and Malaysia on Swallow Reef (Tanwan Reef, 彈丸礁) are about twice as long — also allowing them to land fighters.
However, only the airstrip on Fiery Cross Reef is long enough to accommodate bombers like the H-6K, the air-launched cruise missiles of which increase its destructive power. Located in busy sea lanes, rich fisheries and a potential wealth of mineral deposits, the Chinese airfields would also boost China’s position over strategic resources it needs to fuel economic growth.
However, their usefulness is constrained by the need for large amounts of aircraft fuel.
“If we start to see satellite evidence of fuel storage going in on a large scale in the artificial islands, that will be the clearest indicator that China is planning to develop them as active air bases,” Graham said.
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