Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho proves there is life after austerity for Europe’s politicians.
Coelho’s coalition won 99 of the 230 seats in Sunday’s national election, with four seats still to be allocated. Though the 51-year-old Social Democrat leader lost the parliamentary majority he enjoyed for the past four years, he comfortably leads the Socialist opposition, which has 85 seats so far.
Coelho’s victory follows on the heels of Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras re-election last month, after the anti-austerity crusader agreed to international demands in return for more aid. Both Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny face elections within months, and are fighting off insurgent parties demanding a reversal of tax increases and spending cuts.
Photo: AFP
“The defeat for Portugal’s Socialists is music to the ears of Spanish premier Mariano Rajoy,” London-based Spiro Sovereign Strategy managing director Nicholas Spiro said. “Portugal’s center-left was conspicuously unable to come up with a credible and compelling anti-austerity narrative.”
Coelho led the first coalition government to survive a full term in office since a four-decade-long dictatorship ended in 1974, and he was able to implement austerity without triggering the rise of parties such as Podemos in Spain, SYRIZA in Greece and Sinn Fein in Ireland.
Under Coelho’s stewardship, Portugal raised taxes on everything from wages to diesel cars, reduced spending by 11 billion euros (US$12.3 billion) and exited an international bailout last year.
CONFIDENCE VOTE
“It’s impressive that the ruling coalition survived after four years of budget cuts and tax increases,” said Ramiro Loureiro, a Lisbon-based analyst at Banco Comercial Portugues SA’s Millennium unit. “We can say that it’s a vote of confidence in these very painful measures. This will be very well-received by investors.”
Nevertheless, after losing his majority, Coelho has to rely on his enemies waving through key policies overhauling the economy, one of the poorest in the eurozone.
“You don’t want a government with a weak position in parliament,” Lisbon-based Banco de Investimento Global SA broker Steven Santos said. “You want a coalition that can govern without having to jump hurdles every step of the way.”
SHORT-LIVED
The nation’s minority administrations tend to be short-lived. It has been more than 15 years since Socialist former Portuguese prime minister Antonio Guterres led the only minority government in Portugal to survive a full term since the dictatorship ended.
“Whoever is in opposition will always be tempted to block policies in parliament in order to score political points,” London-based Teneo Intelligence analyst Antonio Barroso said. “The 2017 budget will probably be the first obvious signpost testing the ability of the next government to survive beyond its first year in office.”
The opposition may hold off bringing the government down quickly, rather than risk irritating voters and investors looking for stability. Portuguese 10-year bonds yield 2.3 percent, compared with 18 percent three years ago at the height of Europe’s debt crisis.
“By sticking with the coalition, Portuguese voters are telling Europe that they haven’t turned their backs on the policies that placed their country on the path of recovery,” Lisbon-based X-Trade Brokers DM SA broker Pedro Ricardo Santos said.
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