Sea levels could rise by at least 6m in the long term, swamping coasts from Florida to Bangladesh, even if governments achieve their goals for curbing global warming, according to a study published on Thursday.
Tracts of ice in Greenland and Antarctica melted when temperatures were around or slightly higher than today in ancient thaws in the past 3 million years, a US-led international team wrote in the journal Science.
And the world may be headed for a repeat even if governments cut greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming to a UN goal of 2oC above pre-industrial times.
Photo: Bloomberg
“Present temperature targets may commit Earth to at least six meters sea level rise,” the authors at the Past Global Changes project wrote.
Some greenhouse gases can linger for centuries in the atmosphere.
Such a thaw would threaten cities from Beijing to London and swamp low-lying tropical island states.
Lead author Andrea Dutton of the University of Florida said it could take many centuries for a 6m rise, despite some ancient evidence that more rapid shifts were possible.
“This is a long-term projection. It’s not going to happen the day after tomorrow,” she told media.
The UN panel of climate scientists said in 2013 that global warming could push up world sea levels by 26cm to 82cm by the late 21st century, on top of a 19cm gain since 1900.
Thursday’s study, based on studies of everything from ancient ice to fossil corals, said sea levels rose by between 6m and 9m in a warm period about 125,000 years ago when temperatures were similar to those of today.
Ocean levels gained between six and 13 meters 400,000 years ago when temperatures were up to about 1oC warmer than present.
And in a warm period 3 million years ago, sea levels were also at least 6m higher than now. The ancient shifts were probably linked to natural variations in the Earth’s orbit around the sun.
Last year, some scientific studies indicated that parts of West Antarctica’s ice sheet had already passed a “tipping point” and were locked in an unstoppable long-term thaw.
“Tipping is not just a theoretical possibility, it is a reality,” Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Ricarda Winkelmann told a science conference in Paris.
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