Sri Lanka’s elections next month have been timed to stop a comeback by former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, who remarkably might see his popularity rise in coming months if criticized for war crimes in a UN report, government sources said.
Rajapaksa’s crushing of a 26-year Tamil Tiger insurgency in 2009 won him support among the nation’s Sinhalese majority and he still has a very strong following.
Thousands rallied to hear him announce his comeback campaign on a Buddhist holiday in his Hambantota District on Wednesday last week.
“He is popular and a strong campaigner among Sinhala masses with the war victory,” said Kusal Perera, director of the Centre for Social Democracy, a Colombo-based think tank.
A UN report on the last days of the civil war is due for release in September, but an aide to Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena said diplomatic sources had warned it might be leaked late next month.
The possibility of an early release prompted Sirisena to call elections for Aug. 17 to give his ally Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe an edge and hopefully deny Rajapaksa any chance of a political resurgence, sources close to Sirisena said.
“Even if it is not said openly, the UN report was considered when deciding the date,” said Sri Lankan Minister of Power and Energy Champika Ranawaka, one of Sirisena’s close allies.
Foreign diplomatic sources said that some Western nations were also worried the UN report could help Rajapaksa, and urged Sirisena not to delay elections.
Dissolving parliament for elections next month has also saved Wickremesinghe from a scheduled no-confidence motion over alleged mismanagement of the economy.
The outcome of the elections is likely to also determine whether Sri Lanka, under Sirisena, continues to repair relations with India, or opts for greater ties with China under Rajapaksa.
Rajapaksa built close ties with China, helping Beijing establish a strategic foothold in the Indian Ocean to the chagrin of traditional ally India.
China built ports, airports, highways and power plants under Rajapaksa with more than US$5 billion in loans, and sent a submarine and warship to visit Colombo, irking India.
However, Rajapaksa’s decade-long rule was marred by allegations of corruption and rights violations. Rajapaksa, some former ministers and family members now face multiple investigations. They have denied any wrongdoing.
Sirisena has been trying to reverse some of the steps Rajapaksa took to consolidate power, by depoliticizing state institutions, such as the police, judiciary and public services.
He has re-established ties with India, making India his first foreign visit, and questioned deals with China, including a US$1.4 billion luxury property and port project.
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