Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has spent the past year straddling the divide between Russia and his EU counterparts on the crisis in Ukraine, but he may soon be forced to pick sides.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is set to visit Budapest tomorrow for the first time since Orban came to power. Ukraine is expected to feature prominently in negotiations between the two leaders.
Two weeks later, Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to have a word with Orban.
Hungary joined the EU in 2004, but under Orban, the former communist country has begun moving closer to Moscow.
PUTIN ALLY
A quarter of a century after he shot to prominence in protests during the final days of communism, Orban is now considered one of Putin’s closest European allies.
“Orban has maneuvered Hungary into international isolation, a diplomatic no-man’s land,” Budapest-based think tank Policy Solutions Institute codirector Andras Biro-Nagy said. “The consensus on strategic commitment towards the West no longer exists in Hungary.”
Merkel is to become one of the few Western leaders to have visited the nationalist prime minister.
“How to deal with EU member Hungary is a difficult test case for both Brussels and Berlin,” Peter Balazs, left-wing foreign minister between 2009 and 2010, said.
Still, Germany — as Europe’s biggest economy — is Hungary’s biggest trading partner.
Merkel is not expected to publicly rebuke her host in Budapest, although Berlin sources have hinted that she may openly criticize his recent remarks urging strict curbs on immigration.
PRIVATE PUSHBACK
“Besides managing Ukraine and Russia, and the fallout from last Sunday’s Greek election, Merkel does not want to waste political resources on disciplining a small EU member state,” German Council on Foreign Relations analyst Daniel Hegedus said.
However, behind closed doors, Hegedus says her message will be clear.
“Securing energy security is one thing, but Hungary should not weaken the EU’s and Berlin’s position on Ukraine, and should not become Russia’s Trojan horse inside the EU,” Hegedus added.
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