Tue, Nov 18, 2014 page6

• Okinawa vote deals blow to Japan-US ties: analysts

  • AFP, TOKYO
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  Voters in Okinawa have thrown a spanner into Japan’s relations with the US after electing a governor who wants the US military to downsize its presence at a time of alarm over China’s territorial ambitions.

  Takeshi Onaga rode a wave of anti-US resentment to pummel two-term Okinawa Governor Hirokazu Nakaima in a weekend poll widely seen as a referendum on the deal he struck to move a US airbase from a crowded city center to a pristine bit of coast.

  While most Japanese value the protection the US military alliance gives them, especially in the context of Beijing’s growing assertiveness in its numerous regional disputes, many Okinawans want them to leave the island.

  “I will firmly implement my campaign pledge of seeking to remove the Futenma Airbase outside Okinawa and never allow a new base in Henoko,” Onaga said, referring to the agreed site of the proposed relocation.

  About half of the 47,000 US servicemen stationed in Japan as part of a security treaty are based in Okinawa. The island chain is strategically vital for the US, giving it a hefty foothold in the western Pacific, which has become increasingly important as China’s military ambitions have burgeoned.

  Neither Washington nor Tokyo, which depends heavily on the US for protection, can afford to dramatically reduce the US military presence there.

  However, voters’ rejection of a breakthrough in December last year that looked set to finalize the Futenma move posed “significant challenges” for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Tokyo University professor emeritus Yoshinobu Yamamoto said.

  “It could delay the implementation of the plan for years ahead,” Yamamoto said.

  “As protest activities may intensify ... we may see bloodshed if the government chooses to build the new base forcibly, which is legally possible,” he said.

  The shuttering of Futenma and the opening of a replacement facility at Nago, 50km away, was first agreed in 1996 as the US sought to calm local anger after the gang rape by servicemen of a schoolgirl.

  However, it has been bogged down ever since with local politicians blocking the move in a bid to reduce the US footprint.

  At the end of last year, Nakaima agreed to drop his opposition in exchange for a hefty annual cash injection to the local economy.

  Many islanders saw this as a betrayal, and on Sunday voted about 3:2 in favor of challenger Onaga.

  Japan Institute of International Affairs senior research fellow Tetsuo Kotani warned the result “could influence Japan-US relations in a broader sense.”

  The vote would not result in an immediate change in the current relocation plan, “but if it requires any amendments, then the governor’s administrative power could be an obstacle,” he said.

  “Already voices of concern over the feasibility of the plan are rising from among intellectuals in the United States, although people inside the US government are sticking to the current plan,” Kotani said.

  Washington has said a broader realignment of US forces in Japan is to ensure their presence remains “politically sustainable.”

  Ryutsu Keizai University professor of international politics Hideki Uemura said “Onaga’s victory is a significant blow to the central government” because the governor holds an important card — a veto over necessary landfill permits.

  If Onaga exercises that power, it leaves Abe with two equally unpalatable options: overruling a locally elected official or going back to the drawing board on the relocation plan.
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