A standoff between Iran and the West over Iran’s nuclear plans could erupt in military conflict, a Chinese state newspaper said yesterday, after the release of a UN report likely to increase pressure on Beijing to curb its Iranian ties.
Chinese policymakers are caught between their demand for Iranian oil and worry that the US and its allies will demand harsher sanctions against Iran, even risk military action, after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded Iran appeared to have worked on designing an atomic weapon.
“It is clear that contention between the various sides over the Iranian nuclear issue has reached white hot levels and could even be on the precipice of a showdown,” the overseas edition of the People’s Daily said in a front-page commentary.
If Iran refused to back down in the face of growing US conviction that it was developing nuclear weapons, “the risks of war will grow,” the paper said, noting reports that Israel could consider a military strike on Iranian nuclear sites.
The People’s Daily is the top newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party and broadly reflects official thinking.
A commentary in the small-circulation overseas edition of the newspaper falls short of a formal government response, but it suggests the anxieties weighing on Beijing after the latest UN nuclear agency report.
Xinhua news agency also suggested Beijing would respond warily to the report. The UN watchdog still “lacks a smoking gun,” Xinhua said in a commentary.
“There are no witnesses or physical evidence to prove that Iran is making nuclear weapons,” it said. “In dealing with the Iran nuclear issue, it is extremely dangerous to rely on suspicions, and the destructive consequences of any armed action would endure for a long time.”
China is likely to face difficult choices as it tries to keep steady ties with the US, which is likely to introduce new unilateral sanctions on Iran.
“If these sanctions harm China’s substantive interests, then China will have to respond in some way,” said Li Hong (黎弘), secretary-general of the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association, a government-controlled body.
“It would certainly have an impact on bilateral relations,” Li said in an interview.
Iran is China’s third-largest crude oil supplier, shipping 20.3 million tonnes in the first nine months of the year, up by almost one-third on the same time last year, according to Chinese data. Overall trade between the two countries grew to US$32.9 billion in value in the first nine months, up by 58 percent.
“The onus will really be on China, as the only country whose economic relations with Iran have grown,” Suzanne Maloney an expert on Iran at the Brookings Institution, a think tank in Washington, said in a telephone interview.
Over the past year or more, China has quietly stalled on oil and gas investments in Iran, seeking to ward off stricter unilateral sanctions from Washington, while preserving a foothold in Iran. However, that implicit deal will come under growing pressure, especially from the US Congress, Maloney said.
“They’ve had a compromise for the past 18 months of a go-slow in investment, but it’s difficult to see how that bargain can hold in the wake of the latest revelations,” Maloney said.
Citing what it called “credible” information from member states and elsewhere, the IAEA said Iran appeared to have carried out activities applicable to developing nuclear weapons, such as high explosives testing and developing a trigger that could be used for an atomic bomb.
China has kept close bilateral ties with Iran, but also backed past UN Security Council resolutions criticizing Iran’s position on nuclear issues and authorizing limited sanctions.
However, China has repeatedly resisted Western proposals for sanctions that could seriously curtail its energy and economic ties with Iran. As one of the Security Council’s five permanent members, China holds the power to veto any resolutions.
China has been urging Iran this month to show flexibility over its nuclear program and warned that the use of force to resolve the issue was the last thing the Middle East needed.
Li said Beijing was worried about the tension, but war remained a slim risk.
“Overall, I think the international conditions show governments couldn’t stomach armed conflict over Iran,” he said.
FRAUD ALLEGED: The leader of an opposition alliance made allegations of electoral irregularities and called for a protest in Tirana as European leaders are to meet Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialist Party scored a large victory in parliamentary elections, securing him his fourth term, official results showed late on Tuesday. The Socialist Party won 52.1 percent of the vote on Sunday compared with 34.2 percent for an alliance of opposition parties led by his main rival Sali Berisha, according to results released by the Albanian Central Election Commission. Diaspora votes have yet to be counted, but according to initial results, Rama was also leading there. According to projections, the Socialist Party could have more lawmakers than in 2021 elections. At the time, it won 74 seats in the
EUROPEAN FUTURE? Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama says only he could secure EU membership, but challenges remain in dealing with corruption and a brain drain Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama seeks to win an unprecedented fourth term, pledging to finally take the country into the EU and turn it into a hot tourist destination with some help from the Trump family. The artist-turned-politician has been pitching Albania as a trendy coastal destination, which has helped to drive up tourism arrivals to a record 11 million last year. US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, also joined in the rush, pledging to invest US$1.4 billion to turn a largely deserted island into a luxurious getaway. Rama is expected to win another term after yesterday’s vote. The vote would
CANCER: Jose Mujica earned the moniker ‘world’s poorest president’ for giving away much of his salary and living a simple life on his farm, with his wife and dog Tributes poured in on Tuesday from across Latin America following the death of former Uruguayan president Jose “Pepe” Mujica, an ex-guerrilla fighter revered by the left for his humility and progressive politics. He was 89. Mujica, who spent a dozen years behind bars for revolutionary activity, lost his battle against cancer after announcing in January that the disease had spread and he would stop treatment. “With deep sorrow, we announce the passing of our comrade Pepe Mujica. President, activist, guide and leader. We will miss you greatly, old friend,” Uruguayan President Yamandu Orsi wrote on X. “Pepe, eternal,” a cyclist shouted out minutes later,
Myanmar’s junta chief met Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) for the first time since seizing power, state media reported yesterday, the highest-level meeting with a key ally for the internationally sanctioned military leader. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing led a military coup in 2021, overthrowing Myanmar’s brief experiment with democracy and plunging the nation into civil war. In the four years since, his armed forces have battled dozens of ethnic armed groups and rebel militias — some with close links to China — opposed to its rule. The conflict has seen Min Aung Hlaing draw condemnation from rights groups and pursued by the
RSS