China, the world’s biggest carbon dioxide emitter, will meet near-term goals to fight climate change, but quick economic growth will mean carbon dioxide emissions will be higher than previously thought, researchers said on Tuesday.
China’s quick adoption of clean energy will help it exceed emissions-to-GDP targets agreed last year, but its carbon dioxide output will still be increasing a decade from now with an expanding economy, scientists with Climate Action Tracker said.
“China is set to not only meet its Cancun Agreement emissions intensity pledge, but is likely to go beyond it,” the independent research group said, referring to the global climate change accord from December last year. “However, at the same time, largely due to faster than expected economic growth, emissions in 2020 are likely to be higher than previous estimates.”
The study underscores the uncertain value of global pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions meant to meet the international goal of no more than a 2?C temperature rise over pre-industrial levels which most scientists agree is required to avoid potentially catastrophic climate events.
“We’re heading towards a warming of well over three degrees at present unless there are major improvements in the pledges,” said Bill Hare, the director of Climate Analytics, a research group based in Germany that took part in the study.
China’s concrete steps to curb carbon emissions go further than the pledges made by other big polluter nations, such as the US, the world’s second-largest carbon dioxide emitter, Hare said.
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