Afghanistan and India, two nations united in their suspicion of Pakistan, were set to forge closer ties yesterday as Afghan President Hamid Karzai visits New Delhi during a highly unstable time in South Asia.
The Afghan president, in the Indian capital on his second trip to the country this year, was to meet Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh against a backdrop of shifting relations in the war-wracked and nuclear-armed region.
Some analysts in India predict that Karzai will elevate New Delhi’s role in stabilizing his violence-torn country as he eyes a drawdown of US-led troops by 2014 after more than a decade of fighting.
They say Karzai is losing patience with Pakistan, which he accuses of funding militant groups, and has a troubled relationship with the US, his key backer.
“Karzai’s visit comes at a crucial juncture to endorse India’s involvement in Afghanistan,” said Saeed Naqvi from the Observer Research Foundation think tank. “Karzai is coming to India to confer on India the tag ‘reliable ally’ ... India will get the right to play a more pronounced role [in Afghanistan] after Karzai’s visit.”
The Indian Express newspaper reported on Sunday that the Afghan leader would sign a “strategic partnership” agreement with Singh, his first such pact.
The proposed alliance, which foreign ministry officials declined to confirm, was said to include an Indian commitment to increase its training of Afghan security forces, including the police.
Indian involvement in Afghanistan is extremely sensitive because of the delicate and often deadly power games in South Asia.
New Delhi, fearful of the return of an Islamist regime in Kabul, has plowed billions of US dollars of aid into the country to gain influence — raising suspicion in Pakistan which views Afghanistan as its backyard.
However, anger in Kabul about the recent death of former Afghan president and peace envoy Burhanuddin Rabbani — killed by a Pakistani citizen, according to Karzai’s office — is seen as pushing Afghanistan further into India’s orbit.
“After all the destruction and misery, the double game towards Afghanistan and the use of terrorism as an excuse still continues,” Karzai said of Pakistan on Monday evening.
Karzai was to meet Indian Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna yesterday and then Singh. Today, he is set to deliver a speech on “The Future of Afghanistan and South Asia.”
Indian political analyst Subhash Agrawal, head of India Focus, a private think tank, said the visit was “very significant in light of Afghanistan accusing Pakistan of being involved in the killing of Rabbani.”
“This visit creates more of a natural window for India to have a sustainable role in Afghanistan post-2014,” Agrawal said.
However, some analysts fear that a greater role for India would lead to a more intense and dangerous “proxy war” between it and nuclear-armed Pakistan on Afghan territory, with unpredictable consequences.
New Delhi has repeatedly accused Pakistan of links to groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Haqqani network, which is accused of carrying out attacks in Afghanistan on Indian targets, including New Delhi’s embassy in Kabul.
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