US scientists will again sweep the majority of Nobel prizes at this week’s award announcements in Sweden, analysts have predicted. However, they have also said this dominance might soon come to end.
David Pendlebury, a citation analyst who has correctly predicted 10 Nobel winners since 2002, believes that the countries of the east, particularly China, will soon start to rule the awards for science’s greatest prize.
“In the first half of the 20th century, the UK, Germany, and France dominated the sciences. The US emerged as the world leader after World War II. Now, I believe we will begin to see as many Nobel Prize winners from Asia as we do from the US and Europe.” Pendlebury, who works for Thomson Reuters, was speaking on the eve of the announcement of this year’s awards.
The prize for medicine will be revealed today; physics tomorrow and chemistry on Wednesday. The peace prize will be announced on Friday; economics next Monday; and literature later this month. A maximum of three individuals will be allowed to share a Nobel, with each prize being worth about ￡1 million (US$1.5 million).
During the past 10 years, 31 out of the 76 individuals who won science Nobels were US-based, while 16 out of the 21 economics winners were from the US. By contrast, the UK — a nation with a fair Nobel reputation — won eight physiology prizes, one for physics and one for economics. However, these overall figures are open to wide interpretation. Many winners hold joint nationalities and are often claimed by both their country of origin and their country of affiliation.
Nevertheless, the figures do give a general indication of the gulf that separates the US from the rest of the world, one that is likely to continue this year, Pendlebury said. He has tipped a number of US teams as possible winners, including Robert Langer and Joseph Vacanti, both based in Boston, for their work on tissue engineering; Sajeev John (Toronto, Canada) and Eli Yablonovitch (Berkeley, California) for work on photonics; and Allen Bard (Austin, Texas) for his work on scanning electrochemical microscopy.
However, Pendlebury cautioned against betting on his predictions.
“If you only consider the top 0.1 percent of the most cited scientists in the world, that includes more than 1,000 researchers,” Pendlebury said. “You can narrow it down, but it gets harder and harder to differentiate their contributions. In the end, it rests with the individual preferences of Nobel committee members. Nobels are currently dominated by US scientists. However, US investment in the physical sciences is no longer as robust as its investment in biological and medical sciences, so I think in the next decade or so we will begin to see as many more Nobel Prize winners from Asia.”
As to his own hopes for this week’s prizes, Pendlebury admitted to a couple of favorites. One is Sir Alec Jeffreys, the Leicester University biochemist who, in 1984, developed the techniques of DNA fingerprinting and profiling that have transformed forensic science.
“Nobels are usually given for theoretical work. However, prizes have been given for applied work, such as fiber optics, and I would really like to see Jeffreys rewarded for a discovery that has had an enormous impact on society,” Pendlebury said.
Pendlebury also champions the cause of Jacques Miller, the 80-year-old French-Australian researcher who revealed the key role of the thymus in controlling the body’s immune system, a discovery of immense medical importance.
“It was a critical discovery, though Miller made it 50 years ago. He is still doing research and it would [be] great if he could get a Nobel,” Pendlebury said.
Gaza is rapidly running out of its limited fuel supply and stocks of food staples might become tight, officials said, after Israel blocked the entry of fuel and goods into the war-shattered territory, citing fighting with Iran. The Israeli military closed all Gaza border crossings on Saturday after announcing airstrikes on Iran carried out jointly with the US. Israeli authorities late on Monday night said that they would reopen the Kerem Shalom crossing from Israel to Gaza yesterday, for “gradual entry of humanitarian aid” into the strip, without saying how much. Israeli authorities previously said the crossings could not be operated safely during
Hungarian authorities temporarily detained seven Ukrainian citizens and seized two armored cars carrying tens of millions of euros in cash across Hungary on suspicion of money laundering, officials said on Friday. The Ukrainians were released on Friday, following their detention on Thursday, but Hungarian officials held onto the cash, prompting Ukraine to accuse Hungary’s Russia-friendly government of illegally seizing the money. “We will not tolerate this state banditism,” Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiha said. The seven detained Ukrainians were employees of the Ukrainian state-owned Oschadbank, who were traveling in the two armored cars that were carrying the money between Austria and
Kosovar President Vjosa Osmani on Friday after dissolving the Kosovar parliament said a snap election should be held as soon as possible to avoid another prolonged political crisis in the Balkan country at a time of global turmoil. Osmani said it is important for Kosovo to wrap up the upcoming election process and form functional institutions for political stability as the war rages in the Middle East. “Precisely because the geopolitical situation is that complex, it is important to finish this electoral process which is coming up,” she said. “It is very hard now to imagine what will happen next.” Kosovo, which declared
Counting was under way in Nepal yesterday, after a high-stakes parliamentary election to reshape the country’s leadership following protests last year that toppled the government. Key figures vying for power include former Nepalese prime minister K. P. Sharma Oli, rapper-turned-mayor Balendra Shah, who is bidding for the youth vote, and newly elected Nepali Congress party leader Gagan Thapa. In Kathmandu’s tea shops and city squares, people were glued to their phones, checking results as early trends flashed up — suggesting Shah’s centrist Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) was ahead. Nepalese Election Commission spokesman Prakash Nyupane said the counting was ongoing “in a peaceful manner”
RSS