A year after calling at the UN for a Palestinian state, US President Barack Obama could be about to order a US veto to thwart an aspiration he has spent substantial political capital to bring about.
Palestinians, frustrated that peace talks with Israel and their path to statehood is frozen, are considering an application for recognition as a full member state at the UN Security Council next week.
Obama, under heavy domestic political pressure, has warned a Palestinian declaration of statehood would be a “distraction” and would not change facts on the ground, end conflict with Israel or lead to a genuine state.
The US appears acutely aware of the consequences of a veto and has mounted a last-ditch drive to head off the Palestinian move.
US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said on Tuesday that the initiative was aiming to forge a “sustainable platform for negotiations.” Another option would be to divert a statehood bid away from the Security Council.
If the Palestinians chose instead to seek to upgrade their status to that of a non-member observer state in the UN General Assembly, Washington could vote against the move while avoiding a Security Council veto. Though some European states are reportedly in favor, Washington and Israel still oppose even that compromise.
Despite Israeli warnings of a grave response and the prospect of the US Congress pulling hundreds of millions of US dollars in aid, it might be that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is too politically invested to back down.
White House officials declined to discuss the possible impact of a veto on US prestige.
However, such a step would be embarrassing for Obama after he made the Palestinian cause and repairing the US breach with Islam key goals of his presidency.
In 2009, he traveled to Cairo to address the Muslim world and declared: “America will not turn our backs on the legitimate Palestinian aspiration for dignity, opportunity and a state of their own.”
A year ago, Obama raised the stakes, calling at the UN for Arab states, Israel and Palestine to draw on the traditions of tolerance shared by Christianity, Islam and Judaism.
“When we come back here next year, we can have an agreement that will lead to a new member of the United Nations — an independent, sovereign state of Palestine, living in peace with Israel,” Obama said, laying a big political bet.
Such hopes foundered on Israel’s refusal to extend a settlement moratorium, resulting Palestinian fury and US bad blood with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Marwan Muasher, a former Jordanian foreign minister, now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argued that a veto could damage US credibility as it pushes for reform in a region rocked by the Arab Spring.
“I think the United States needs to understand this is a new region,” Muasher said. “It can no longer say: ‘If you are Libyan or Egyptian or Syrian, we’re for freedom, we are with you, but not if you are Palestinian.’ This is not a strong argument.”
The International Crisis Group’s Robert Malley said the administration was divided, with one group fearing a veto could radicalize Arab opinion and be “an extremely negative development in terms of US image ... in the Arab world.”
The other view is “that this is expected, people know the US is going to veto it,” he said.
A Palestinian decision to internationalize their drive for a state would be a blow to US-sponsored peace efforts, but despite the unpleasant consequences of a US veto, a change of heart by Obama looks impossible. Weakened by the stagnant economy, targeted by Republicans who brand him anti-Israel because of his clashes with Netanyahu and facing a re-election race in which Jewish voters are important, Obama has no political capital left to burn.
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