Calls are growing for an end to Western sanctions against Myanmar, but experts say a shift in policy is unlikely without progress on human rights and the support of democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyii.
The Nobel Peace laureate’s release last November following Myanmar’s first election in 20 years has reignited debate over the effectiveness of the punitive measures, enforced by the US and the EU in response to the junta’s human rights abuses.
“There’s a lot of internal debate going on among policymakers and a previously established and longstanding consensus is increasingly seeming brittle,” a Bangkok-based Western diplomat said.
Critics of the policy say sanctions, which have largely kept Western companies out of the country, are hindering development in one of the world’s poorest nations.
But the regime must still provide “something that is considered substantial, a step in the right direction,” before the West — highly critical of the election — will remove them, analyst Aung Naing Oo said.
Two of the pro-democracy parties that took part in last November’s elections have called for the lifting of all sanctions on the grounds that they do not benefit the wider population.
ASEAN, which includes Myanmar, and a group of the country’s main ethnic political parties have also urged an end to the measures, ahead of the new parliament’s opening next Sunday.
“It will be difficult to ignore all these calls for a change of policy,” said the diplomat, who did not want to be named.
Even Aung San Suu Kyii appears to have softened her stance and her party is reviewing its position on sanctions after years of firmly supporting them. She said last month that she wanted dialogue with the junta on sanctions.
“I don’t look at sanctions as a bargaining chip, but as a way of trying to improve the situation,” she said.
Experts say the backing of Aung San Suu Kyii would probably be crucial for an end to the measures.
“I am not sure if the EU and United States will be able to lift the sanctions without the input from Aung San Suu Kyii,” said Maung Zarni, a Myanmar research fellow at the London School of Economics. “Her views are considered reflective of public opinion.”
Aung San Suu Kyii was freed from house arrest on Nov. 13 after spending 15 of the past 21 years in detention.
Sanctions advocates say that five decades of mismanagement under military rule are to blame for the hardships in Myanmar rather than the measures themselves, which were designed to weaken the regime and its cronies. The US bans trade with companies tied to the junta, and also freezes such firms’ assets and blocks international loans to the state. The EU also has sanctions freezing assets and businesses of junta figures, as well as blacklisting their travel, but it has continued some trade and investment.
A spokeswoman for EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Catherine Ashton said the EU was “following the situation in Myanmar very closely ... [but] wants to see what the government will do,” notably in terms of rights.
Asian firms have overlooked the political situation and human rights abuses to invest in Myanmar’s ample natural treasures.
Zarni said the real push for lifting sanctions was coming from Western investors who “feel sanctions have deprived them,” and whose arguments are “couched in the language of [the] public well-being of Burmese people.”
Critics say the willingness of Asian countries to invest without conditions is precisely why sanctions are not working.
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