Exciting is not a word normally associated with NATO summits. But there’s no denying Western officials are unusually worked up about this week’s alliance gathering in Lisbon, which they describe as the most significant for a decade — even, maybe, since the end of the Cold War.
US President Barack Obama will have something to smile about: a rare foreign policy success, namely the broad Western rapprochement with Russia that has followed his decision to “reset” relations. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s attendance in Lisbon may be largely symbolic, but after recent G20 and Israel-Palestine disappointments, not to mention the midterms, it’s a big political plus for Obama.
Russia is expected to agree to cooperate with a high-altitude ballistic missiles defense system that shields all of Europe, including Turkey (if Ankara can reconcile its conflicted loyalties). This marks a dramatic turnaround in Moscow, where the more aggressive missile plans of the former US president George W. Bush administration elicited fierce opposition.
“If it is based on equality, beginning with joint risk assessments in the area of missile proliferation, then such co-operation is entirely possible,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at the weekend.
“It’s a real opportunity to turn a new page, to bury the ghosts of the past,” NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said.
In a notable convergence of view, Russian Ambassador to Kabul Andrey Avetisyan warned last week the war was moving closer to home.
“The deterioration of the situation in the north [of Afghanistan] is very worrisome. It is almost on the border with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan ... so what we are afraid of is extremism, terrorism, drugs coming [in] our direction,” he said.
The revamped mission of “new NATO” in a changed world of evolving threats and challenges is supposed to be built on improved cooperation and interoperability between member countries, but aspiration and achievement often collide. Friction continues, for example, over the presence in Europe of Cold War-era US tactical nuclear weapons and the pace of global nuclear disarmament. Military budgets are being squeezed. Defense cooperation between the alliance and the EU is virtually non-existent.
And on Afghanistan, far and away NATO’s biggest collective test, ongoing strains are evident. Having withdrawn their combat troops in the face of US opposition, -leaned-on Canada and the Netherlands are now conceding some forces may stay on as trainers. Other European allies are edgy. Only Britain regularly speaks up in full support of the US-led strategy.
Officials say the summit will seek a “significant” increase in Afghan army and police recruits, set transition “parameters” for an overall handover to Afghan security control by 2014, and produce a joint declaration of a “long-term, enduring [NATO] relationship with Afghanistan” intended to reassure the Afghan government, allay Pakistani fears that the west will cut and run, and send a deterrent signal to Iran.
All the indications suggest a White House review next month will endorse the Iraq-style “surge and secure” strategy pursued by General David Petraeus — and order him to carry on. Obama may make some token “conditions-based” withdrawals after next July. But as matters stand, and with peace talks with the Taliban more a fond hope than a real prospect, troop cuts next year are unlikely to amount to much.
Despite entrenched insurgent resistance, deepening public opposition at home and abroad, spiraling human and financial costs, rising instability in Pakistan, and ever shriller protests from Afghan President Hamid Karzai, it seems this war still has a long way to go. That’s a big risk for Obama and an even bigger one for the “new NATO.” In short, it could all become a little too exciting.
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