Even large-scale Russian cheating on a new nuclear arms treaty would not hurt US security because US nuclear superiority would more than offset any Russian actions, the administration of US President Barack Obama has concluded.
James Miller, the Defense Department’s leading authority on nuclear arms, on Tuesday outlined for the Senate Armed Services Committee how the administration came to this previously undisclosed conclusion.
He was challenged by Senator John McCain, a leading Republican, who asked in an incredulous tone why the Obama administration bothered to negotiate the treaty if Russian cheating is of no consequence.
“Why have a treaty?” McCain boomed.
“To say that [Russian cheating] has little, if any, effect, then we’ve been wasting a lot of time and money on negotiations,” he said.
After the hearing, Miller told reporters that the US does did have, nor did it seek, nuclear superiority over Russia.
“The US has tried to be clear ... that we desire approximate parity with Russia, not nuclear superiority,” he said.
The ability to verify compliance with the treaty is a key point of debate as the Senate considers whether to ratify the deal, which was signed in April by Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Both governments hailed it as a major breakthrough in US-Russian relations and a step toward making the world safer.
The treaty, known as New START, would shrink the limit on strategic warheads to 1,550 for each country, down about a third from the current ceiling of 2,200. It requires approval by the legislatures of both nations; the Russian Duma is waiting for the US Senate to act first.
Prospects for ratification are considered strong for the treaty, which has drawn wide bipartisan support among think tank experts and former top-ranking officials, but Senate approval might not happen until this fall.
Miller told the committee that the size and structure of the US arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons — the so-called triad of submarines, bomber aircraft and land-based launchers — provide assurance that any Russian cheating would have little military significance for the US.
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