US commanders, worried about increased violence in the wake of Iraq’s inconclusive elections, are now reconsidering the pace of a major troop pullout this summer, US officials said.
The withdrawal of the first major wave of troops is expected to be delayed by about a month, the officials said on Tuesday. Waiting much longer could endanger US President Barack Obama’s goal of reducing the force level from 92,000 to 50,000 troops by Aug. 31.
More than two months after parliamentary elections, the Iraqis still have not formed a new government and militants aiming to exploit the void have carried out attacks like Monday’s bombings and shootings that killed at least 119 people — the country’s bloodiest day this year.
The threat has prompted military officials to look at keeping as many troops on the ground for as long as possible without missing the Aug. 31 deadline.
A security agreement between the two nations requires US troops to be out of Iraq by the end of next year.
In Baghdad and Washington, US officials say they remain committed to the deadline, which Obama has said he would extend only if Iraq’s security deteriorates. Getting out of Iraq quickly and responsibly was among Obama’s top campaign promises in 2008.
Extending the deadline could be politically risky back home — but so could anarchy and a bloodbath following a hasty retreat.
Two senior administration officials said the White House is closely watching to see if the Aug. 31 date needs to be pushed back — if only to ensure enough security forces are in place to prevent or respond to militant attacks. Both spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the administration’s internal discussions.
Already, the violence, fueled by Iraq’s political instability, will likely postpone the start of what the top US commander in Iraq, Army General Ray Odierno, has called the withdrawal “waterfall” — sending home large numbers of troops in a very swift period.
In a January interview with The Associated Press, Odierno said he hoped to start withdrawing as many as a monthly average of 12,500 troops, starting this month, to meet the August deadline. He has long said he would not start the withdrawal until two months after Iraq’s March 7 elections to ensure stability.
However, three US officials in Baghdad and a senior Pentagon official said that the “waterfall” is now expected to begin next month at the earliest. All cited ongoing concerns about whether the political impasse would lead to violence, and spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the process more candidly.
“From a military perspective, the best way for us to maintain security is to hold as many forces on the ground until we need to redeploy them,” one of the senior officials in Baghdad said.
The official said it would be wise for Odierno to wait as long as he can, given the unsettled political conditions in Iraq.
At the Pentagon, “there’s been a renewed focus on Iraq lately,” the senior military official there said.
He said all options were being considered, including later delays, adding that “we need to get out in an appropriate way ... not completely tied to a timeline.”
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