Democratic lawmakers who once saw health care overhaul as a historic quest are now anxious to get the debate behind them, with yesterday’s Massachusetts Senate race underscoring how hard and joyless the effort has become.
Regardless of whether Democrat Martha Coakley squeaks past Republican Scott Brown, their down-to-the-wire campaign has shaken some Democrats’ belief that most Americans will see the proposed health delivery changes as worthwhile. Emboldened Republicans, meanwhile, see the Democrat’s struggle in liberal Massachusetts — where health care was a central issue — as a harbinger of Republican gains in November’s midterm elections when control of Congress will be at stake.
Even if the health legislation survives, the Massachusetts experience may erode congressional support for other priorities of US President Barack Obama, such as energy and climate-change bills.
A Brown victory could quickly kill Obama’s chief domestic priority, because Republicans could block further Senate action on health care with a filibuster, a legislative maneuver to block a final vote on a bill. That would leave the White House and Democratic lawmakers with options ranging from bad to horrible.
Democrats could try a strong-arm tactic, such as rushing to hold a final Senate vote before Brown is sworn in, knowing it would ignite a ferocious public outcry.
If Brown wins, health care’s fate will turn on the Democrats’ answer to a wrenching question: Which is worse, enduring such a firestorm of criticism at the start of an election year, or admitting defeat on their top agenda item despite controlling the House, Senate and White House?
Opponents have made it clear that they will interpret a Brown victory as a verdict against the Democrats’ entire health care agenda.
Even if Coakley wins, her struggles have shaken some congressional Democrats who expect tough races in November.
Colleagues are trying to reassure them, saying there will be time to explain to voters the benefits of the proposed health care package.
The public will forget the parliamentary tactics that were used to pass it, no matter how ugly, these Democrats say.
If Coakley loses, the White House’s best hope of saving the health package may lie in trying to persuade the House to accept the bill the Senate passed last month. Obama could sign it into law without further Senate action.
That could be a tough sell. Many House Democrats already are furious at cuts to the original health care proposals demanded by the Senate, where rules give the minority Republicans considerable power. Accepting every comma of the Senate-passed bill, while dropping their own bill, could be more than some liberal House Democrats will swallow.
Some moderate Democrats might abandon the bill for other reasons as they brace for tough Republican challenges this fall, although they could open themselves to charges of flip-flopping if they supported the legislation last month.
Liberals oppose the tax on high-cost insurance plans in the Senate bill, while anti-abortion Democrats have termed the Senate’s approach to restricting taxpayer funding “unacceptable.”
Catholic bishops adamantly oppose the Senate language restricting the use of taxpayer funds to pay for abortion. They support the House’s harder line. Liberals say the House bill would deny access to a legal medical procedure to millions of privately insured women.
As the clock ticks down, Democrats ponder a cruel irony: The death of Senator Edward Kennedy, a lifelong champion of health care reform, has triggered the events that have put the effort at the verge of a last-minute demise.
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