The US drone war in Pakistan has made gains in annihilating Taliban and al-Qaeda commanders, but Islamist violence on the ground is becoming deadlier and the program risks fanning the unrest.
While tens of thousands of US troops are fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan, their presence is unwelcome in ally Pakistan and strikes by unmanned aircraft have become the main US combat tactic.
The Long War Journal, which tracks the strikes, says missiles have killed 15 senior al-Qaeda leaders, and 16 “mid-level” al-Qaeda and Taliban operatives since January 2008, as well as Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP), the Pakistani Taliban.
Despite Mehsud’s death, TTP are killing more people than ever and al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden — believed to be sheltering along the Afghan-Pakistan border — remains at large.
Tribal experts fear drone attacks could spawn a long war of revenge.
“The way they are now attacking with their drones, trying to hit local militants — maybe local militants are not a big threat to America but in the future they could become a threat,” tribal expert Rahimullah Yusufzai said.
The tribal belt is barred to outsiders, communication links are poor and militants are said to impose a reign of fear, making the cost of the drone attacks and their long-term impact impossible to assess.
Local residents in North Waziristan — a district where 22 of the last 24 attacks have struck — said families lived in fear over the prospect of a missile annihilating their home without warning.
Yet speaking from Mir Ali, one of the main towns in the district, one shopkeeper said the drones did appear to have deterred foreign fighters.
“There seems to be only one advantage — the number of foreigners who used to roam markets in the region freely has reduced considerably,” Noor Mohammad said.
Militants exploit drone attacks to recruit and there are fears that Pakistan’s perceived role undercuts its own counter-insurgency campaign against radicals.
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari has warned that drone attacks undermine national consensus in “the war on militancy.”
“Drone attacks are radicalizing other people who may not have supported the Taliban,” Yusufzai said.
Lisa Curtis, a research fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation, said the Obama administration had little choice but to rely on drones.
“The long-term costs are that it’s raising anti-Americanism in Pakistan, which in turn makes it more difficult for us to cooperate with Pakistan,” she said.
Samina Ahmed, an analyst for the International Crisis Group, said US tactics had yet to spark major protests and cautioned against exaggerating the current impact for the civilian government.
“If there were drone attacks on urban centers, major civilian casualties, there would be a public outcry,” she said. “It would become a major challenge to the Pakistan military and the Pakistan government.”
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