The Iranian leadership boasts it is safe from US military action, saying Washington knows an attack would find no world support and send oil prices skyrocketing. That confidence is buoying the government in its standoff with the West, despite new sanctions.
Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, on Friday dismissed the US announcement a day earlier of new sanctions, saying "Washington will isolate itself" with the measures.
"They have imposed sanctions on us for 28 years. The new sanctions are just in the same direction," Jalili said as he returned from talks with European officials in Germany and Italy, the state news agency IRNA reported.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has taken a hard line in the confrontation with the West over its nuclear program, apparently confident Washington's main pressure tools -- sanctions and the threat of military action -- are ineffective.
It could be a risky bet. Ahmadinejad's main vulnerability is domestic: rising criticism from a public angry over the country's poor economy and from politicians disillusioned by what they call his mismanagement. Even some conservatives have expressed fears Ahmadinejad is pushing Iran into future trouble over the nuclear issue.
Further sanctions, even unilateral ones from the US, could hurt the economy more by further isolating it from international finance -- and Iranians have already been expressing worries over the new measures.
Ahmadinejad, who faces elections in 2009, knows "jobless and poor people will not vote for him if his policies bring them more difficulties," said Ahmad Bakhshayesh, a political science professor at Tehran's Azad University.
But he believes "unilateral economic sanctions by Washington are not strong enough [to hurt Iran] due to Iran's widespread economic relations with the world."
Suzanne Maloney, a specialist on Iran at the Washington-based Brookings Institution, said that while sanctions have put pressure on the regime, oil prices have dampened their effect.
"Yes, life becomes more expensive, but right now they have a fairly considerable cushion," she said, adding that sanctions might force the government to become more fiscally responsible.
"A flush Iran has been an irresponsible Iran," she said. "Most of their economic problems have been caused by having too much cash on their hands."
In the face of new sanctions, "it's not unthinkable that they'll take more responsible measures at home that will cut some of the internal pressure."
Recent US statements have deepened Iranians' fears of attack. Last week, US President George W. Bush warned that a nuclear Iran could lead to "World War III," and Vice President Dick Cheney vowed on Sunday that the US and other countries would not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. Iran denies it is seeking nuclear weapons, saying its program aims only to produce electricity.
After the US sanctions announcement, a string of Iranian military officials came forward to insist the US will not attack Iran, citing the strain on the US military from the Iraq war and worries over high oil prices. But they vowed harsh reaction if the US does attack.
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