North Korea will quickly scrap all its nuclear programs, South Korea predicted yesterday on the eve of the first anniversary of the communist state's atomic weapons test that shocked the world.
But analysts cautioned that despite dramatic progress over the past year, the toughest negotiations -- to persuade the North to give up its plutonium stockpiles and actual atomic weapons -- still lie ahead.
"I am confident that the North Korean nuclear issue will be settled completely and quickly because the six-party talks have produced an advanced accord, reaffirmed by the leaders of both Koreas," South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun said in a speech to parliament.
Roh, whose speech was read by his prime minister Han Duck-soo, met North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang last week for a historic summit.
The North's chief nuclear envoy Kim Kye-gwan personally briefed both leaders on a six-nation pact announced on Oct. 3, according to Moon Chung-in, ambassador for international security affairs at the Seoul foreign ministry.
Moon told reporters that the envoy gave the leaders a 15-minute briefing during the course of their summit and both were satisfied with it.
Under the pact, the hardline communist state pledged to declare and disable all programs by year-end.
A team of US experts was scheduled to leave today for North Korea to draw up a plan for the disablement of its plutonium-producing Yongbyon reactor and other plants, in the first step towards compliance.
Sung Kim, director of the State Department's Korean office, heads the team composed of technical experts and a National Security Council representative.
Follow-up teams will do the actual disablement.
Yonhap news agency said on Sunday that North Korea would likely begin the disablement this month, with the process expected to take 45 days.
Hailing a "historic event," North Korea on Oct. 9 of last year announced it had conducted its first nuclear test -- triggering worldwide criticism and sanctions but also an apparent softening of Washington's hardline policy.
Three weeks later, after secret talks with Kim Kye-gwan in Beijing, US envoy Christopher Hill announced that the North would return to the six-nation nuclear talks which began in 2003.
Those talks, involving the two Koreas, the US, China, Japan and Russia, went on to reach a Feb. 13 deal under which the North would declare and disable all programs in return for major energy aid and security and diplomatic breakthroughs.
Washington has promised to work towards removing it from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, and eventually normalizing ties after full denuclearization.
A peace treaty formally ending the 1950 to 1953 Korean War is also envisaged.
"With the disabling of the Yongbyon facilities, North Korea will be unable to produce more weapons-grade plutonium. This is a major step forward," wrote Ralph Cossa, president of the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum CSIS think tank.
But some analysts believe Kim Jong-il will never surrender the atomic weapons which his country spent decades developing. Others see a long road ahead.
"True denuclearization will not be able to begin ... until all of Pyong-yang's fissile material is put on the table. There are still miles to go before we put this issue to sleep," Cossa said.
Ruediger Frank, professor of East Asian economy and society at Vienna University, wrote in the Korea Herald that while Pyong-yang may be ready to give up its facilities, "it is very unlikely that the same is true regarding its existing nuclear devices."
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