President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran sent a shiver of alarm across Europe and the Middle East with his demand that Israel be "wiped off the face of the Earth." But even if the remark was more than mere rhetoric, his ability to pursue a confrontational policy is severely circumscribed.
Real power in the Islamic republic lies not with the presidency but with the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The fundamentalist Ahmadinejad is a protege of the ayatollah, who backed him last summer against reformist candidates. And the unelected supreme leader, along with the mullahs' Guardian Council, has the final say on major issues of state.
Ahmadinejad is in a minority even among conservatives.
According to Ray Takeyh of the US-based Council on Foreign Relations, a consensus emerged during Muhammad Khatami's presidency that post-revolutionary Iran could no longer afford global isolation of the kind this week's gaffe engendered.
Khamenei did much to undermine Khatami's modest political reforms. He would not countenance a rapprochement with the "Great Satan" (the US).
But he encouraged bridge-building elsewhere.
"By cultivating favorable relations with key international actors such as China, Russia and the European Union, Tehran has sought to craft its own `coalition of the willing' and prevent the US from multilateralizing its coercive approach to Iran," Takeyh wrote.
"Although the Islamic Republic continues its inflammatory support for terrorist organizations battling Israel and is pressing ahead with its nuclear program, its foreign policy is no longer that of a revolutionary state. This perspective will survive Iran's latest leadership transition."
Ahmadinejad, a blacksmith's son, former revolutionary guard and ex-mayor of Tehran, based his appeal to voters on social justice and personal humility.
His demand for a "second revolution" implied criticism of corrupt clerical and secular elites controlling much of Iran's oil-funded economy.
He has almost no experience in international affairs. His appearance at the UN last month, when he denounced the West's "nuclear apartheid," was adjudged a diplomatic disaster.
And he has a stubborn streak. One of his first actions was to appoint a fellow hardliner, Ali Larijani, as head of Iran's nuclear negotiating team. The talks quickly hit the rocks.
In an apparent show of defiance against Khamenei, he has reportedly sought counsel in Qom from Ayatollah Mohammad-Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi, the fundamentalists' anti-Western "spiritual father." But he faces additional constraints.
His defeated rival, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, continues to chair the influential Expediency Council. The council has gained an expanded role overseeing all branches of Iran's power structure.
Earlier this month, Rafsanjani appeared to reprimand the new leadership for "sloganeering."
Ahmadinejad's electoral honeymoon has also been brief. He is under fire for failing to share out oil income and create jobs. There have been rows over Cabinet appointments and control of the oil ministry. And there are insidious suggestions that he is out of his depth.
All this may explain his apparent need to adopt "bold" leadership postures.
But spectacular international own goals and domestic underperformance suggest he could become a liability to his turbaned tutelars.
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