The investigation into the Bali bombings nearly a month ago has yet to make any breakthroughs, leaving counterterrorism officials and experts with an edgy sense that the terrorist network in Southeast Asia has become smarter and more sophisticated, both in carrying out attacks and in avoiding detection.
Compounding the difficulties of the investigation, Indonesian officials and Western security specialists now say that the preparations for the attack were made in the Philippines, including training the suicide bombers and assembling the backpack bombs, which had detonation wires sown into the straps.
Investigators are operating under the theory that the backpacks were made by a man, Dulmatin, who is No.3 on the Bush administration's list of the most wanted terrorists, and was a mastermind of the first Bali bombings three years ago. Dulmatin, who uses only one name, was trained in explosives at camps run by al-Qaeda in Afghanistan in the 1990s. The possibility of more attacks like the one in Bali on Oct. 1 -- small bombs carried by suicide bombers -- is very high, especially in Bali, Indonesian and Western officials said this week. Some contend that the men and materials are already in the country, having entered from the Philippines.
No arrests have been made in the current case, and to the surprise and dismay of the authorities, the three suicide bombers have still not been identified even though their faces have appeared on television, in newspapers, and on fliers distributed throughout the archipelago. Indonesian authorities fear that relatives of the bombers and villagers who know the bombers have not come forward because they sympathize with the terrorists' cause.
Nor have the explosives used in the bombs been identified, which leads some investigators to say they believe that the terrorists used an unusual method. Residue from the blasts, which killed 19 people and three suicide bombers, is being examined at labs in London and Canberra, as well as in Jakarta, investigators said.
The lack of progress contrasts with the investigation into the attacks on the Bali night clubs, in October 2002, when a van packed with explosives and a suicide bomber killed 202 people. Three weeks after the attack, one of the principal plotters had been arrested, and other arrests quickly followed.
In the current investigation, the police are stymied and frustrated.
"These terrorists learned from Bali I," Indonesia's senior counterterrorism official, Ansyaad Mbai, said. "The planning was more sophisticated," he said. "The size of the bomb was smaller."
He noted the bomber at one of the restaurants, caught on an amateur video, was walking normally, and did not appear to be struggling under any appreciable weight. A smaller bomb may not be as deadly, but a larger bomb, like the one used in Bali I, has a "higher possibility of being discovered," he said.
The police had far more evidence after the first Bali attacks, including the remains of the van. A chassis number the bombers had not scratched out led to the quick arrest of a principal perpetrator.
The first Bali bombers had to bring equipment into the city, including the van and materials for making the bomb. A dozen or so men were involved in the operation, and they spent a least a week in Bali assembling the bomb. Afterward, the police found people in Bali who remembered the men, and the motorcycle was found near a mosque.
In the recent bombing, investigators say they believe that only a small group was involved, and that the bombers might have entered the country a day or two before the attack, which would severely reduce the number of people who saw them. Two of the principal bomb makers in Bali I, Azahari Husin and Dulmatin, are prime suspects in the recent attacks.
Meanwhile, the US warned citizens to avoid nonessential travel to Indonesia yesterday.
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