An East Asian Summit scheduled for December that could lead to the formation of a powerful new regional community is facing formidable challenges even before its inaugural gathering, analysts said.
Some of the summit's most important participants are split on who should be allowed to join, while ASEAN, which is driving the process, is worried it might be rendered superfluous.
"It has not really internally resolved if the US or other countries viewed as ambiguous or outside the traditional demarcation of East Asia should be in the organization," said Lim Tai Wei, a Cornell University analyst.
"On top of that, there is active antagonism within the summit with US allies like Japan favoring the inclusion of Oceanic and North American Pacific powers while China and Malaysia have different ideas," he said.
The December summit in Malaysia will involve all 10 ASEAN members as well as China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. Russia, too, has asked to be invited.
It is designed to bring together the region's leaders like nothing else before it, but the difficulties it faces will gradually come into focus following this week's series of ASEAN meetings in the Lao capital of Vientiane.
If the East Asia Summit decides to keep the US out, China stands to gain the most as the dominant participant. This happens at a time when China has exploded onto the regional stage with decades of pent-up energy, and could trigger worries among smaller nations that the summit will mainly become a platform for Beijing to exert its influence.
Perhaps in a deliberate attempt to address these concerns, China's approach has so far been remarkably low-key.
"Chinese diplomats have emphasized that they will proceed with regionalism in East Asia at a pace that ASEAN is comfortable with, based on regional consensus," said Melissa Curley, as ASEAN expert at Hong Kong University.
"In these early days, I think the summit will be concerned with establishing basic principles of its composition and mission, and it will be unlikely to see any one country trying openly to take the role of `regional leader,'" she said.
ASEAN is doing what it can to keep control of the summit, insisting that one of its members must always host and chair the gathering. For the time being, ASEAN may even have a quiet ambition of becoming something of a leading force in the East Asia Summit.
"ASEAN would no doubt hope that a continuing steering role would actually increase its relevance," said Mark Rolls of New Zealand's University of Waikato.
Even so, there is a lingering fear that ASEAN could come under pressure from the East Asia Summit, reflected in remarks by Marty Natalegawa, a foreign ministry spokesman from Indonesia, in Vientiane this week.
"The most important point when we talk of East Asia Summit as far as Indonesia is concerned, and I must emphasize it's Indonesia, is that this undertaking should not be at the expense of ASEAN community building," he said.
"Rather it should be in conformity and it should strengthen ASEAN community building."
ASEAN's jitters over the East Asian Summit could turn out to be self-defeating, according to Alice Ba, a political scientist from the University of Delaware.
"The ASEAN states are not all of one mind about it and most are very ambivalent precisely because an East Asian group could render ASEAN irrelevant," she said.
"A lot will depend on ASEAN states being able to work together and not at cross-purposes."
ASEAN's big advantage is being of just the right size -- big enough to matter, but not big enough to become unwieldy.
It also covers a clearly defined geographical area, giving its members a sense of common purpose, according to observers.
"ASEAN's raison d'etre will always lie in it being a body which can give Southeast Asia a unified -- and, as a result, much more effective -- voice when dealing with its larger neighbors," said Shaun Narine of Canada's St. Thomas University.
"But the stronger the East Asian Summit becomes, the more potential fracture lines it will create in ASEAN itself. On the other hand, the chances of the East Asian Summit really being `successful' are debatable."
‘SHORTSIGHTED’: Using aid as leverage is punitive, would not be regarded well among Pacific Island nations and would further open the door for China, an academic said New Zealand has suspended millions of dollars in budget funding to the Cook Islands, it said yesterday, as the relationship between the two constitutionally linked countries continues to deteriorate amid the island group’s deepening ties with China. A spokesperson for New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters said in a statement that New Zealand early this month decided to suspend payment of NZ$18.2 million (US$11 million) in core sector support funding for this year and next year as it “relies on a high trust bilateral relationship.” New Zealand and Australia have become increasingly cautious about China’s growing presence in the Pacific
Indonesia’s Mount Lewotobi Laki-Laki yesterday erupted again with giant ash and smoke plumes after forcing evacuations of villages and flight cancelations, including to and from the resort island of Bali. Several eruptions sent ash up to 5km into the sky on Tuesday evening to yesterday afternoon. An eruption on Tuesday afternoon sent thick, gray clouds 10km into the sky that expanded into a mushroom-shaped ash cloud visible as much as 150km kilometers away. The eruption alert was raised on Tuesday to the highest level and the danger zone where people are recommended to leave was expanded to 8km from the crater. Officers also
The team behind the long-awaited Vera Rubin Observatory in Chile yesterday published their first images, revealing breathtaking views of star-forming regions as well as distant galaxies. More than two decades in the making, the giant US-funded telescope sits perched at the summit of Cerro Pachon in central Chile, where dark skies and dry air provide ideal conditions for observing the cosmos. One of the debut images is a composite of 678 exposures taken over just seven hours, capturing the Trifid Nebula and the Lagoon Nebula — both several thousand light-years from Earth — glowing in vivid pinks against orange-red backdrops. The new image
ESPIONAGE: The British government’s decision on the proposed embassy hinges on the security of underground data cables, a former diplomat has said A US intervention over China’s proposed new embassy in London has thrown a potential resolution “up in the air,” campaigners have said, amid concerns over the site’s proximity to a sensitive hub of critical communication cables. The furor over a new “super-embassy” on the edge of London’s financial district was reignited last week when the White House said it was “deeply concerned” over potential Chinese access to “the sensitive communications of one of our closest allies.” The Dutch parliament has also raised concerns about Beijing’s ideal location of Royal Mint Court, on the edge of the City of London, which has so
RSS