Nuclear "haves" and "have-nots," at odds over the lingering hold of atomic weapons on the world, risk reaching little more than noisy deadlock at an upcoming conference reviewing the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
North Korea, Iran, a fear of nuclear terrorism, US talk of new weapons -- all give delegates from more than 180 treaty nations a host of issues to confront at a tense, troubled time internationally. A panel of UN experts warns of a "cascade" of nuclear proliferation if NPT controls erode further.
But diplomats haven't even settled on an agenda yet, a week before the May 2 to May 27 meeting in New York, chiefly because of differences between Washington and non-nuclear states.
The Bush administration wants to keep the focus on Iran, which it contends is cheating on the treaty and secretly planning to build nuclear arms.
"We think the main issue to be discussed at the Review Conference is the problem of noncompliance with the NPT," Stephen Rademaker, a top US arms control official, said in an interview.
But many other governments want equal emphasis on speeding up what they see as the weapons states' slow pace toward nuclear disarmament, to which they are committed under the 1970 treaty.
"It is bitterly disappointing," Tim Caughley, New Zealand's ambassador on arms control, said of the continuing failure to open broad disarmament talks.
The conference's Brazilian president is working hard to find middle ground. "Before the conference starts, I hope I will find agreement among the members," said Sergio de Queiroz Duarte.
Whether it starts with a fully agreed agenda or not, observers see potential stalemate at the review, convened every five years to assess how well treaty obligations are being met.
"It's going to be very difficult for states to come together on a forward-looking program on all these issues," said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the private Arms Control Association in Washington.
The NPT, a flawed but vital centerpiece of arms control, is essentially a global bargain: States without nuclear weapons pledge not to pursue them, and five with the weapons -- the US, Russia, Britain, France and China -- pledge to move toward eliminating them.
Although India, Pakistan and Israel, treaty nonmembers, have also developed atomic weapons, the NPT is credited with having prevented a wider nuclear free-for-all in the world. But the treaty has its loopholes.
North Korea utilized one when it declared in 2003 it was withdrawing from the NPT and was building a nuclear arsenal -- all with no repercussions under international law. Some at the upcoming conference are expected to propose tightening NPT rules to make it harder to withdraw, and to threaten sanctions against those who do and who make weapons.
Many see a third "pillar" of the NPT bargain as another flaw: the guarantee that non-weapons states have access to technology for peaceful nuclear energy, the same fuel technology -- uranium-enrichment gear, for example -- that can build atom bombs.
Washington claims, and Tehran denies, that Iran used this NPT cover to assemble equipment for planned nuclear arms.
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