Growing rivalry between Japan and China is expected to worsen, undermining US strategic interests and challenging its defense commitments in Asia, analysts say.
The US has kept a low profile so far in the latest dispute between the two Asian giants arising from Chinese anger over Japan's perceived lack of contrition for wartime crimes.
But as the two powers compete for resources in their quest for economic growth, flex their military muscle and jostle for political supremacy in Asia, the US cannot help but be dragged into their quarrel, according to some analysts.
"The rivalry between the two Asian giants is only likely to get worse and this could undermine Northeast Asian peace and stability as well as US interests," predicted Peter Brookes, a former senior defense official in US President George W. Bush's administration.
The increasing competition, he said, would see China hastening its military buildup, and "I doubt very much that Japan will stand idly by."
Japan is worried that any hostile takeover of Taiwan by China will threaten its own security. For the first time, it has joined the US this year in voicing concerns over China's increasing military spending and tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
Japan is the top Asian ally of the US, bound by a bilateral security treaty with more than 40,000 US soldiers stationed in the southern Japanese island of Okinawa.
"Okinawa is closer to Taipei than it is to Tokyo," noted Brookes, now the director of the Asian studies center at the conservative Heritage Foundation.
Many of China's moves aimed against Japan seem to threaten US interests.
"We have to be clear with China about our concerns, about especially any sort of aggressions towards our allies," Brookes said. "If you are not clear about your strategic intent, then China might miscalculate or misperceive your resolve and do something that is counterproductive for all concerned."
The controversy over Japanese textbooks that allegedly gloss over atrocities from the 1931-1945 Japanese occupation of China led to mass Chinese street protests over the last three weekends. Demonstrators pelted Japanese diplomatic missions with bottles and cans and trashed Japanese businesses.
The farthest the Americans have gone was to call the violence "regrettable" and chide the Chinese government for failing to contain the violence.
The textbook issue is only the tip of the iceberg in the long-festering Sino-Japanese rivalry.
The two neighbors have overlapping claims on a string of islands in the East China Sea believed to contain undersea petroleum reserves. The US returned the islands to Japan more than three decades ago.
In addition, China has rejected any Japanese bid for a seat in the UN Security Council. While the US has explicitly backed Tokyo's candidacy, Beijing says Japan does not deserve a seat until it further atones for wartime atrocities.
"If Japan-China relations were to further deteriorate or continue at a rather hostile level for a prolonged period of time, the strategic implications for the United States in Asia are not good," said Edward Lincoln, an East Asian expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, an influential US think tank.
He said both Japan, Asia's most developed economy, and China, the most populous nation and a nuclear power, were key to the US strategic interests in Asia.
The US has often taken the hands-off approach in the quarrels between the two Asian powers, but "I certainly hope that this time we are discussing with both the Chinese and Japanese behind the scenes, telling them to decrease the tensions," Lincoln said.
While the Bush administration has worked to improve the tone of official US relations with China, its real effort in relationship building has been focused on Japan, said Dan Blumenthal, an ex-senior director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia at the US Defense Secretary's office.
"A stronger alliance with Japan clearly benefits the United States in its long-term competition for influence with China," he said.
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