Campaigning began in earnest yesterday for a Nov. 9 election that will test whether Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi can turn his popularity into a decisive victory for his party and a renewed mandate for reform.
More than 1,000 people, many waving small Japanese flags, braved a chilling downpour to hear Koizumi make his campaign pitch in the western Tokyo residential suburb of Machida.
"I'm grateful so many of you came out in the rain. I want to respect your support and turn the LDP into a party of reform," Koizumi told a largely female crowd from atop a van as aides held umbrellas and listeners snapped photos of him with cell phones.
The general election -- the first since Koizumi leapt to power in April 2001 promising to fix the world's second largest economy -- will also provide clues to whether Japan is finally moving toward a true two-party system.
The poll pits the conservative ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its two partners primarily against the Democratic Party led by Naoto Kan, a former lawyer and one-time health minister who has spent most of his career battling the system.
"Whether a true two-party system will be born hinges on this election," Kan told a crowd in Fukuoka, southern Japan, where a top LDP executive faces a tough race.
More than 1,000 candidates were expected to register on the first official day of campaigning for the 480 seats in the Lower House, the more powerful of parliament's two chambers.
The LDP has ruled for most of the past half century either alone or in a coalition, except for a brief period in 1993 to 1994 when it was ousted by a broad but unwieldy reformist coalition. The LDP hopes the popularity of Koizumi, a veteran lawmaker with a knack for managing the media, can translate into a decisive victory for the party even though many of its old guard oppose his reform ideas, which include cutting public works spending and privatizing money-guzzling government corporations.
Led by the less charismatic Kan, the Democrats are betting their detailed policy manifesto -- including promises to reduce bureaucrats' grip on policy and give local governments more say -- will convince voters they are the best bet for real change.
Kan says his target is for the Democratic Party to win more than 200 seats to set the stage to form an anti-LDP coalition.
The LDP-led ruling camp had 285 seats prior to dissolution, of which the LDP alone had 244 compared to 137 for the Democrats.
Early opinion polls have suggested that Koizumi -- whose personal public support rate is about 60 percent -- was giving the LDP an edge over the Democrats.
But appealing to the uncommitted will be key.
Surveys show that one-third to half of Japan's more than 100 million registered voters shun affiliation with any party.
Some voters said yesterday that Koizumi was pushing his party and the economy in the right direction.
"It's only been two years and if we were to look at it from a longer-term perspective, I think the reforms are actually progressing at great speed," said Haruyuki Otou, a 39-year-old real estate worker who turned out to see Koizumi.
Others were less patient.
"I had very strong expectations for Koizumi and his reforms when he came to power two years ago," said 22-year-old college student Yoshitomo Kodaka. "But I have been disappointed."
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