Though the SARS epidemic has been stopped for now, health experts said yesterday it was doubtful the disease could ever be completely wiped out and the chief of the World Health Organization (WHO) said there is no guarantee it will not reappear.
Global experts said that increased awareness of the dangers of new diseases should be galvanized to advance tests on drugs to more quickly curb the next outbreak of SARS or a future unknown killer.
Gro Harlem Brundtland, WHO director general, and some 1,000 medical researchers, government officials and health experts are already thinking of the next big epidemic as they meet in Kuala Lumpur to share lessons from the SARS crisis.
Brundtland said in a television interview that "we are many steps ahead of where we were in March" when the first world alert of the new, pneumonia-like disease was sounded.
"In China, as in other places, the disease is on the turn, going down," Brundtland said.
"In the best case, we can see SARS disappear," she said. "However, we do not know if it can reappear from the animal community and reappear in humanity again."
Severe acute respiratory syndrome is believed to have originated in civet cats and other game animals sold at food markets in southern China, where the first case of what was later identified as SARS was reported last November.
The disease has killed about 800 people and sickened more than 8,400 worldwide. China has been worst hit, with more than 5,300 probable cases and at least 347 deaths.
At a panel discussion at the conference, experts agreed there was a lack of diagnostic and other research into SARS, but indications so far are that eliminating the virus wouldn't be possible.
Dr. Hume Field, an Australian veterinary expert, said that if initial research is confirmed and animals are found to be the source of SARS in humans, "eradication is highly improbable" because the virus will have a permanent reservoir.
He said research indicated the coronavirus believed to cause SARS had existed in animals for hundreds of years, and recent behavioral changes was the likely trigger for the jump to humans.
"This seems to be an ancient virus," he said. "So I don't think eradication or ... control of the host animal is the issue. The issue is to avoid exposure."
More positively, Dr. Nigel Gay, a WHO consultant on SARS infection patterns, said it appeared possible that the current strain of the virus could be eliminated, but warned that an outside source could start a new outbreak.
"Can we eradicate SARS? The sentiment is that it is too early to say, and we need to prepare for the next time around," said Dr. Margaret Chan, director of health in Hong Kong who chaired the panel.
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